ABC: The Winners and Losers

Welcome to the first edition of "The Winners and Losers", where I take a look back at ABC's 2015-16 television season and access which shows were the biggest winners and which shows could have done better.

WINNERS

Grey's Anatomy
After years of trouble in the Thursday at 8pm time slot, ABC saw its second straight season of success there with Grey's Anatomy. It's currently ABC's #2 scripted show, averaging a 2.23 A18-49 rating, and is down just over 6% year-to-year--less than almost every other show on broadcast. It's skewing slightly older this season, as shown by the fact that it's lost less than 2% of its total viewers. It's been clear for a while that when this ends, it'll be a Shonda decision and not a Mouse decision.

The Bachelor
The Bachelor is perhaps the show on broadcast television people most love-to-hate, because for all the people who complain about the show, it's still UP (0.31%) year-to-year, which is something no other ABC show can say. It averaged a 2.36, making it ABC's #2 show and #1 non-scripted show. Not bad for a bridge series airing its 19th cycle.

The Little Comedies That Could
Rounding out the winners list for ABC are "the little comedies that could". I'm referring to The Middle, The Goldbergs, and Last Man Standing, all of which were by and large marginal renewals that some questioned when they made it into a second season. The Middle and The Goldbergs have blossomed into hits, with both doing better in ratings relative to other shows than ever before. The Goldbergs is currently averaging a 2.03, down less than 7% year-to-year and remaining ABC's #2 comedy and #4 scripted show. The Middle is just a tad behind it at a 1.91, down a little over 4%. It's ABC's #3 comedy and #5 scripted show overall, showing how strong ABC's comedy department is compared to dramas this season. In fact, in recent days The Goldbergs and The Middle have been ABC's #3 and #4 shows due to Scandal's recent ratings collapse.

Meanwhile, Last Man Standing is still chugging along on Fridays with a 1.21 A18-49 average, a rating that neither of the Tuesday comedies can say. Down less than 5% year-to-year, this show would be an obvious renewal if it wasn't for Tim Allen's contract. Most expect a renewal like always though. Last Man Standing has the 2nd-healthiest year-to-year trend in ABC's scripted department, behind only The Middle.

LOSERS

Bridge Season
Bridge season for ABC is still more of an experiment that is a great idea that hasn't been executed properly--kind of like The Muppets. American Crime was ABC's highest-rated bridge show this season--and oh yeah, it's #20 in the scripted department of 25. At least it gets critical attention, something Marvel's Agent Carter (0.79, down 47%), Galavant (0.63, down 52%), and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.65) can't say.

The Muppets
It's a bit deceiving that The Muppets is currently ranked #11 on ABC's scripted ratings chart. It had everything going for it: a well-received pilot presentation, promos that got everyone excited, a new girlfriend for Kermit, bringing a Disney brand to ABC, finding a way to bring new life into Tuesday, guest stars, and the list goes on. It premiered to a 2.9 A18-49 demo. The problem was that not many people were particularly compelled by the pilot episode. Because that 2.9 turned into a 2.0 for the second episode, and by the time they hit the fourth episode it was at a paltry 1.3 rating. Not exactly the rating anyone was expecting, leaving Fresh Off The Boat to fend for itself and spend a second straight season making do with a not-so-ideal situation. Since this show was really supposed to succeed and ABC spent so much money promoting it, they decided to switch show runners and retool it, and even slightly upgraded it to the 8:30 time slot, which only sent it into fractional territory for its final six episodes. There has been talk that it will return for a second season, possibly in a Galavant-like role, but don't be fooled if it does; this was a giant ratings loss for ABC and if it returns will be because they're The Muppets, and are owned by Disney.

Tuesday at 10
What ABC has aired Tuesday at 10pm this season and two seasons ago make last season's Forever actually look good. A total of five weeks have been devoted to scripted programming in the time slot before they got replaced by equally low rated, yet cheaper, reality filler. I don't think anything has ever gotten a rating that wasn't fractional there this season. Even Beyond the Tank, which was holding almost all of Shark Tank in its three-week event last May was hitting consistent 0.5s in the time slot. The sad part is that the competition isn't overly intimidating; Chicago Fire does well for a 10pm show but Limitless shouldn't be something that you're afraid to counter-program against.

Paul Lee
Paul Lee's time at ABC had its ups and downs. They had a great season last year, but there has been some slippage this season. Reportedly his vision for the network wasn't in line with Ben Sherwood's, who wants more procedurals to Lee's serials. Time will tell if bridge season is kept, but Paul Lee's term came to an abrupt end in the eyes of the public a couple months ago. I do think that his bridge season idea was a great idea and hope to see it continue in some capacity.

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: American Crime vs Presence and The Jury

There are still a lot of shows with fates that are far from obvious to the public when it comes to ABC. I think in a couple cases it's between choosing between certain shows; one will be on next season's schedule, not neither, and not both. So first, I wanted to look into the prospects of critically-acclaimed serialized drama American Crime versus creator John Ridley's new project, Presence. Reportedly one and only one will be on next seasons schedule, so here is my analysis:

American Crime

The Atlantic

The largest case American Crime has for a renewal isn't the ratings, it's the critical acclaim and the ability to work with the likes of Felicity Huffman, Regina King, and John Ridley. This one has been getting major awards attention; we're talking multiple Golden Globe and Emmy nominations, and for the whole show too, not just one actor or actress. It's the kind of show that all the networks want, as evidenced through the pickup of NBC's Law & Order: True Crime and the desire to have a "buzzy"
serial like FX's American Crime Story (which kinda stole its name from the show we're talking about right now). These awards didn't seem to give the show any live ratings boost whatsoever though, and it isn't making any backend profits from a syndication deal. In the table below, I've broken down the percentage of the average American Crime has performed at, numbers courtesy of SpottedRatings:

	American Crime
A18-49	62
A18-34	62
W18-49	65
W18-34	58
M18-49	57
M18-34	60

So yeah, not the best ratings. Most shows that get renewed are at relative ratings much greater than these; even American Crime's first season did better in relative ratings. Now there is absolutely no doubt that ABC and John Ridley will be working together next season, it's a matter of with which show. Which brings me to...

Presence 

OK, I just read Presence's show description and it looks to be the next Castle to me (http://thefutoncritic.com/devwatch/presence/). It looks on-brand with shows like Castle and Quantico, and definitely steers more in that procedural directing that ABC thinks they can have more long-term success with. I am starting to think that ABC will decide to go with this one over American Crime, and based on earlier interviews, Ridley doesn't seem to be overly intent on continuing American Crime since he's proud of how Presence turned out. 

What About Having That Critically-Acclaimed Anthology Series?

Also in development is a new anthology series named The Jury, which depicts a group of people from completely different backgrounds who see the trial from different viewpoints. The first season will follow a single trial, qualifying it as an anthology series. With John Ridley's new project looking to be a strong procedural candidate, potentially as a Castle replacement or Quantico companion, will ABC be willing to roll the dice and let this one be their critically acclaimed drama? Will Presence do well with critics because of John Ridley? Either way American Crime is not pulling in good ratings, and ratings aren't everything, but I suspect ABC thinks they would be able to do better. With both Presence and The Jury supposedly talked highly about, I'm a little weary on American Crime's future. I first had it in the renewal territory before everyone else did, but it may have to be moved out. As things stand right now, this may be the end of the road for American Crime. But only if Presence, and probably The Jury too, get picked up. Even in the era of ABC wanting less serialized shows, I think it would be in their best interest in having an anthology series on their schedule for critical acclaim, whether that be American Crime or The Jury. What do you think? Is it making money? Could they do better?

Poll

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: American Crime Starts As a Likely Renewal

First, sorry for the slightly-below-average quality of the table, I usually copy and paste from a document but it got all wacky on me when I tried to do that this time so I had to take a screenshot instead.

Changes from Last Time
-American Crime enters in the Watching category
-Galavant enters as a likely cancellation

Bridge Shows and Certain Cancellations
This season, I am considering not ever placing a bridge or shortened series as a certain cancellation. So if you're a fan of Galavant, American Crime, Agent Carter, The Family, or The Catch and other sites are showing a certain cancellation prediction, you'll be seeing something slightly more optimistic here. The reason being that very few people expected Galavant or American Crime to get out of their first season alive, yet both defied the odds. Seemingly there are lower standards for these types of series, and a large part of Galavant's renewal may have been its tax break.

Why is American Crime a Likely Renewal?
I can't believe that I wrote that article headline, or even the underlined phrase directly above this sentence. But I think the tides have shifted in favor of American Crime. Since the finish of its critically-acclaimed first season, American Crime has racked up numerous award nominations,

TV Guide

including an Emmy win for Regina King. Of course, awards don't mean everything, but for a limited anthology series, it may just be worth keeping around. I was very surprised that it held its own in its move away from its Scandal lead-in, and think this is a case where looking at retention only may be misleading. It's doing just as well as Castle and Nashville and not far away from Quantico, and those are all fall shows! I don't expect American Crime to take a fall spot away from any of them, so they are not in direct danger of cancellation, but regardless it's impressive for the show.

Why is Galavant a Likely Cancelation?
Galavant premiered to a very weak 0.8 A18-49 rating this season, series low. But that series low only lasted a short period of time, as it sunk to a 0.6 rating in its second week on the air. Perhaps it had a large audience overlap with the Golden Globes, but one thing that is clear is that all four of its

Variety

episodes are likely to be fractional. I'm not sure if it still has that tax break this season, but despite the seemingly lower standards for bridge shows, they certainly must have some sort of standard, and I think Galavant may have gone below that threshold. This point holds especially true if you look at its ad rate, which values the show at more than double the rating it just received. I think The Muppets would be much better suited for that time slot next season, but it all comes down to expenses.

ABC ANNOUNCES MIDSEASON SCHEDULE

ABC has announced its midseason schedule. Some notes:

Premiering Week of January 3rd

-Galavant (Sunday at 8)
-The Bachelor (Monday at 8)
-Agent Carter (Tuesday at 9)
-American Crime (Wednesday at 10)
-My Diet is Better Than Yours (Thursday at 8)
-Beyond the Tank (Thursday at 10)

And now, for what you've all been waiting for...the just-announced time slots of midseason shows! Here goes:

-The Real O'Neals will premiere Wednesday, March 2nd double pumped after The Middle and Modern Family. Sound familiar?
-The Family will premiere Thursday, March 3rd at 9, and will move into its regular time slot on Sunday, March 6 at 9
-ABC has decided to go ahead with its Fresh Off The Boat-Real O'Neals Tuesday block, which will premiere March 8
-Of Kings & Prophets takes the 10pm time slot that same night
-The Catch premieres Thursday, March 24 at 10

Other notables:

-The Muppets will come back on February 2 and be off the air by March 1
-TGIT returns February 11
-Nashville returns March 16

-------------------------------------
What do you think of the schedule? Let me know, I always enjoy reading your comments!

What Does ABC's Future Look Like?

Hi! I'm Hunter, author of the summer renew/cancel predictions, and this is my first of five posts about the futures of the major broadcast networks. First up is ABC. ABC had a good year in 2014-15, but will that continue? It has Shondaland and a solid Wednesday comedy block to help it, but some shows, such as Agents of SHIELD and Modern Family ended the last season on lows, which could be scary to some ABC executives. How will ABC do in the 2015-16 season? What shows will come back in 2016-17? And how might the network do when its older shows end? Those are some of the questions that I will try to answer!

One of ABC's biggest concerns heading into this season may be what the low finale numbers of Agents of SHIELD, Modern Family, and Black-ish mean. Are the shows going to fall this season? Was it a fluke? Modern Family and Black-ish's finale ratings are more likely to be a fluke. They aired without new episodes of The Middle and The Goldbergs at 8:00 and 8:30. Black-ish is obviously lead-in dependent, but Modern Family shouldn't be affected by repeats as lead-ins, right? Most likely, many viewers watch the whole Wednesday comedy block (or at least The Middle and Modern Family) and either assumed that Modern Family was a repeat as well, or decided that since only the 9:00 hour was new, they would rather DVR the episodes or watch them on Hulu or some OnDemand service. Yes, Modern Family is dying, but not as quickly as the season six finale rating suggests. Agents of SHIELD on the other hand may be in trouble. Luckily for fans, SHIELD has two seasons under its belt, and has been renewed for a third, and since these seasons are all 22 episodes, a forth season will happen. But, SHIELD could be the new Revenge, four-and-done, with not-good ratings by the time it gets to its forth season.

There are four death slots on ABC's schedule, in my opinion: Sundays at 9:00, Sundays at 10:00, Tuesdays at 10:00, and Fridays at 8:30. Sundays at 9:00 aren't as bad as the rest. Revenge and Resurrection both started out doing well when they first aired there, but both shows fell. Revenge was lucky and was on its way to syndication and just got moved an hour to 10:00. Resurrection, however, was canceled after a low-rated second season. Secrets & Lies did decently there last spring, despite looking like it would be canceled at the start. Blood & Oil looks sure to bomb there however. When you go to 10:00 that same night, your chances fall even further. Betrayal, Red Widow, 666 Park Avenue, GCB, and Pan Am all failed there before Revenge moved there and aired its last low-rated season-and-a-half. Quantico is liked by reviewers, which makes me think it has a shot at a full season, but I think that the timeslot will eventually kill it, and I don't expect a season two. Tuesdays at 10:00 have also been very deadly, just ask Forever, Mind Games, Killer Women, Lucky 7, and Body of Proof, the five shows that were canceled after airing there since the end of Private Practice. Beyond the Tank shouldn't do too poorly there, but it's only airing there for a short time, then Wicked City takes over. I originally thought that it could do well, but now that it is premiering at the end of October, and is still only ten episodes, it looks like it will be a victim of poor scheduling, which is especially bad in a poor timeslot, like the one its in. Fridays at 8:30 has also been a bad timeslot. Cristela, The Neighbors, and Malibu Country were all canceled after airing a season here. Will Dr. Ken be different? I highly doubt it.

This year, ABC has six returning comedies (not including Once Upon a Time winter bridge Galavant): Fresh Off the Boat, The Middle, The Goldbergs, Modern Family, Black-ish, and Last Man Standing. ABC has four hours of comedy each week, as they have every year since the 2012-13 season. Even with how well ABC comedy is doing, adding a fifth hour of comedy to the week would be crazy, and ABC is not going to have only one new comedy on the schedule next fall. This means that, unless one of those six is held for mid-season 2017, any renewal of a new comedy (The Muppets, Dr. Ken, The Real O'Neals, Uncle Buck) means a cancelation of one of those. I would be shocked if ABC canceled one of their Wednesday comedies, and if The Muppets didn't do well enough to warrant a renewal. That's five comedy renewals. Dr. Ken and Uncle Buck most likely won't do very well, which leaves Fresh Off the Boat, The Real O'Neals, and Last Man Standing to fight for one renewal. Now, there is a chance that two of these will get renewed. ABC could hold one for mid-season, though that is unlikely, as the last time ABC held a returning comedy for mid-season they had four new comedies in the fall (Suburgatory was the returning comedy, The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife, Back in the Game, and Super Fun Night were the new comedies). The other chance for two of the three getting renewed is if The Middle or Modern Family decide that seven is enough seasons. It doesn't seem very likely for Modern Family to end after season seven, maybe season eight when most of the kids are grown up. But The Middle could decide to end in 2016. If not, Fresh Off the Boat will likely beat The Real O'Neals and Last Man Standing to a renewal, but if so, those two shows could be competing for the final spot. But, even if Last Man Standing is canceled, it could move to FOX or a FOX-owned station.

But, Fresh Off the Boat and Last Man Standing aren't the only returning shows that need to worry about if they are getting another season. Sophomore shows Agent Carter, American Crime, and Galavant all got renewals last May that were more on the surprising side. American Crime was most likely renewed due to critical acclaim and Galavant was renewed most likely due to music sales, because both shows got poor ratings. Agent Carter didn't get as poor of ratings, and the fact that it is a Marvel show helped. How far can these three shows fall to get them canceled? It's a question that will be difficult for us to answer. Secrets & Lies is another show in its second season that isn't so sure to get a third. Last season, it started at a rating that made it look like it would be canceled, but it grew throughout the season and ended up with high enough ratings to be renewed. However, in season two the show will have a new co-star opposite Juliette Lewis and is planned to air in a new timeslot. This could negatively affect the ratings. Nashville is another show that is probably worried about its future. It will be airing its forth full season this year, bringing it to enough episodes for syndication. The ratings have been mediocre in season three, so most likely the things that might get it a season five are music sales and syndication money.

Looking farther ahead, there are a few questions I have about what ABC's 2016-17 schedule will look like. The first is about Friday comedies. I predict that Last Man Standing will not return to ABC, so what will ABC do on Fridays? ABC is definitely going to still have four hours of comedy, and I don't see them putting an hour anywhere else on their schedule. So what comedies will go there? At least one returning comedy will go there, maybe two. I think two will go there, and I'm predicting Fresh Off the Boat and Black-ish. Those two are most likely going to be the lowest rated of the six comedies they renew. Another day that's scheduling could be interesting is Thursday. If The Catch gets a full second season, will it stay on Thursday, or will it move to another day? Two other returning dramas that could end up moving are Agents of SHIELD and Nashville (if it is renewed). Both shows get mediocre ratings, especially Nashville, and SHIELD is falling. Could SHIELD move to 10:00? Could either show move to Sunday? I think either is very possible.

The Middle and Modern Family don't have many more seasons left in them, they will both be entering season seven this fall. After they end, what comedies will be ABC's dependable veterans? I think that The Muppets and The Goldbergs will take over. The Muppets looks like it will be a hit, and The Goldbergs is going to be in its third season this fall and it has been growing out of its lead-in of The Middle regularly. ABC's comedy future looks a lot better than most networks'.

What did you think of this article? Leave your thoughts in the comments!