Invest In 20 Shows Tournament

We’ve done similar versions of this before, and it’s the time of year to do it again. Here are the guidelines for this season’s tournament.

-You have $2 million on hand.
-Look at the ad rates for every show. These rates are the same ones as in our ‘Predicting the Ad Rates’ article series.
-Pick at least 20 shows to advertise/invest in without exceeding the $2 million.
-At least 4 of the shows must be new shows.
-The person whose shows finish the season with the highest A18-49 Live + Same Day average will be crowned the winner.

Enjoy, and good luck! Here are the ad rates to go by, sorted alphabetically:

9-1-1 $163,283
20/20 $51,054
60 Minutes $117,002
A Million Little Things $89,492
A.P. Bio $71,883
Abby’s $82,474
America’s Funniest Home Videos $62,842
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D $49,222
America’s Got Talent: The Champions $185,388
Alec Baldwin Show $67,345
All-American $29,262
American Housewife $116,023
American Idol $162,491
Arrow $34,731
Black Lightning $54,849
Black-ish $119,785
Blindspot $67,384
Blue Bloods $71,394
Bob’s Burgers $98,385
Brooklyn Nine-Nine $94,274
Bull $99,381
Charmed $41,839
Chicago Fire $129,448
Chicago Med $121,019
Chicago PD $128,779
Child Support $71,582
Cosmos: Possible Worlds $100,385
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend $17,037
Criminal Minds $98,638
Dancing with the Stars $107,946
Dancing with the Stars: Junior $84,231
Dateline NBC $54,353
Dynasty $18,372
Elementary $78,198
Empire $194,472
Fam $91,371
Family Guy $129,381
FBI $119,273
For The People $72,918
Fresh Off The Boat $74,282
Game of Games $160,393
God Friended Me $88,277
Good Girls $82,431
Grand Hotel $93,472
Grey’s Anatomy $192,723
Happy Together $75,018
Hawaii Five-0 $71,927
Hell’s Kitchen $88,471
How to Get Away with Murder $121,012
I Feel Bad $88,284
In The Dark $25,812
Instinct $55,820
iZombie $18,382
Jane The Virgin $22,371
Last Man Standing $82,077
Law & Order: SVU $112,474
Legacies $30,381
Legends of Tomorrow $36,981
Lethal Weapon $89,463
Life In Pieces $109,285
MacGyver $69,037
Madam Secretary $62,927
Magnum, P.I. $101,729
Man With A Plan $93,283
Manifest $104,385
MasterChef Junior $104,385 (yes, like Manifest)
Modern Family $171,018
Mom $152,840
Murphy Brown $137,820
NCIS $130,371
NCIS: LA $85,628
NCIS: NO $86,183
New Amsterdam $152,052
Proven Innocent $89,335
Rel $93,381
Riverdale $48,492
Roswell, New Mexico $32,896
S.W.A.T. $111,833
Schooled $90,284
SEAL Team $101,831
Shark Tank $86,298
Single Parents $106,562
Speechless $74,845
Splitting Up Together $116,542
Star $122,374
Station 19 $111,927
Supergirl $39,381
Supernatural $39,814
Superstore $118,279
Survivor $141,027
The 100 $25,739
The Amazing Race $112,832
The Bachelor $138,812
The Big Bang Theory $271,931
The Blacklist $82,472
The Code $85,183
The Conners $152,734
The Cool Kids $67,445
The Enemy Within $92,004
The Fix $88,914
The Flash $71,373
The Gifted $106,372
The Gilded Age $74,275
The Goldbergs $162,111
The Good Doctor $182,759
The Good Place $109,472
The InBetween $86,485
The Kids Are Alright $118,251
The Neighborhood $82,749
The Orville $92,374
The Passage $115,830
The Red Line $97,283
The Resident $98,381
The Rookie $100,472
The Simpsons $115,037
The Titan Games $97,438
The Village $120,482
The Voice (Monday) $235,442
The Voice (Tuesday) $222,338
The Wall $87,442
This Is Us $319,482
Whiskey Cavalier $85,284
Will & Grace $127,388
World Of Dance $90,371
Young Sheldon $249,471

Predicting The Ad Rates: NBC

Here are my predictions for the NBC ad rates, as reported by Variety.

Football Night In America

I don’t really see the ad prices of Sunday Night Football going anywhere, so might as well keep this the same as well. Maybe a small uptick to try to cover the costs.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $104,815

2018-19 Prediction: $106,318

NBC Sunday Night Football

See: Football Night In America. NBC, advertisers, and the NFL all know what they’re getting out of this.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $728,434

2018-19 Prediction: $733,381

The Voice

The Voice has had decent year-to-year trends. Based on ratings, it deserves to keep the high ad rates it has. 

2017-18 Ad Rate: $233,242 (Monday), $218,950 (Tuesday)

2018-19 Prediction: $235,442 (Monday), $222,338 (Tuesday)

Manifest

The Voice hasn’t been able to properly launch a show recently. As of now, it seems like they’re planning on focusing more on New Amsterdam.

2018-19 Prediction: $104,385

This Is Us

While This Is Us is a huge hit, I still think it was a bit overvalued, especially with the ratings coming back down to earth a little bit at the end of the season. Its best days are very likely behind it, but it should still be able to pull in high ad rates for a non-football show.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $394,314

2018-19 Prediction: $319,482

New Amsterdam

It would be a missed opportunity to not charge as much as possible for the show that airs after This Is Us. New Amsterdam should be more compatible than Law & Order: True Crime. Also, medical drama are hot right now, which should given advertisers a boost of confidence.

2018-19 Prediction: $152,052

Chicago Med

Chicago Med will lead off NBC’s all-Chicago Wednesday nights. It will no longer be airing after This Is Us, but should provide ratings slightly better than previous time slot occupants. It will likely be devalued a bit, but that’s natural given the time slot change.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $132,875

2018-19 Prediction: $121,019

Chicago Fire

Chicago Fire should get help by a multitude of factors, including being sandwiched between its two fellow Chicago shows. It was probably a little overvalued last season, but should have a solid hold now that it doesn’t have to air after extremely low-rated comedies.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $131,232

2018-19 Prediction: $129,448

Chicago PD

I really can’t tell if Chicago PD just got a time slot upgrade, downgrade, or neither. On one hand, it gets to air after a resilient Chicago show that should pull in good ratings. On the other, it was very compatible with Law & Order: SVU, which is now moving. I say the two cancel each other out and the ad rate is more or less the same as last season.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $130,126

2018-19 Prediction: $128,779

Superstore

Superstore had a pretty solid season, and made the best of a bad situation in the spring. It’s not the breakout hit NBC may have hoped for overall, but it provides stable ratings and deserves to be valued the same, if not a little more.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $116,916

2018-19 Prediction: $118,279

The Good Place

The Good Place certainly overachieved in its second season, as it could have easily collapsed. The same could happen this season, though some Emmy love may help the ratings. I expect the value to go up, but not by a ton.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $106,838

2018-19 Prediction: $109,472

Will & Grace

Will & Grace’s first revival season was met with much hype, and naturally NBC was able to charge a high ad rate for it. Now that its ratings aren’t really much better than the sitcoms that air earlier in the night, I expect its rate to take a tumble. It will still make NBC a lot of money, and the decline is expected due to all revivals being frontloaded in the ratings.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $170,749

2018-19 Prediction: $127,388

I Feel Bad

Amy Poehler is behind I Feel Bad, and NBC has shown numerous times that they think highly of her. This could easily become another Great News (Tina Fey) or Champions (Mindy Kahling). With other options on the bench, NBC likely sees this more of a placeholder.

2018-19 Prediction: $88,284

Law & Order: SVU

It’s tough to say how SVU will fare in its new time slot. It always seemed like it was best suited for the 10pm time slot, but now it’s asked to air after a comedy block, and I Feel Bad might not do well. Still, NBC will likely try to convince advertisers this is a good move by hiking up the ad rate. After all, the show has been pretty stable these last few seasons.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $106,373

2018-19 Prediction: $112,474

Blindspot

NBC really needs to rely on the ad rates for Blindspot to make it profitable. That being said, they won’t want to overcharge and have to deal with makegoods.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $83,844

2018-19 Prediction: $67,384

Midnight, Texas

After taking a long time to renew this marginally-rated summer 2017 series, Midnight, Texas is being asked to air after Blindspot in the fall. I’m getting vibes of Emerald City or Constantine here.

2018-19 Prediction: $63,471

Dateline NBC

Dateline has consistently been beating 20/20 and is a very reliable player for NBC. While the content matter could skew away some advertisers, I think an inevitable decline in rates for some shows could lead to a possible uptick here.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $48,593

2018-19 Prediction: $54,353

A.P. Bio

A.P. Bio’s renewal was likely part of NBC’s strategy to be patient with their comedies, as they slowly rebuild that department. With Brooklyn Nine-Nine canceled by FOX and saved by NBC, A.P. Bio is the most prone to have been pushed back to summer. As such, I don’t expect a huge ad rate.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $99,722

2018-19 Prediction: $71,883

The Blacklist

The Blacklist went from post-Voice hit to Thursday anchor to Thursday at 10pm to the Wednesday time slot consistently filled with marginally-rated dramas. This season, it is being kept on the bench, and likely will return midseason on Sundays. This could be the last season where it is viable for NBC, though Sony seemingly makes a lot of money off the show.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $111,037

2018-19 Prediction: $82,472

Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Brooklyn Nine-Nine seems like it will fit in well with Superstore if paired with it, which would be a smart move on NBC’s part. Assuming they promote it correctly, NBC can play hero here and get away with charging a decent sum.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $88,957

2018-19 Prediction: $94,274

Ellen’s Game of Games

This is easily a surprise hit of the season. With its high ratings and broad appeal, the second season of this show should be a big money maker for NBC.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $124,061

2018-19 Prediction: $160,393

Good Girls

Good Girls was another marginally-rated Mondays at 10pm show that got renewed. The second chance is supposed to be on Sundays after World of Dance. I have to think the ad rate will be lower.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $94,191

2018-19 Prediction: $82,431

The Wall

This game show broke out in its first season but has since faltered a bit. This could end up going into indefinite hiatus with the hosting situation, but for now it seems like it’ll stay a second-tier unscripted show for NBC. I certainly don’t see its value increasing.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $90,000

2018-19 Prediction: $87,442

World of Dance

World of Dance had very good ratings and retention from America’s Got Talent in its first season, but has since weakened a bit. If the plan to air it Sundays midseason goes through, chances are it will be weakened a bit more. 

2017-18 Ad Rate: Unknown

2018-19 Prediction: $90,371

Abby’s

Abby’s is pretty much guaranteed to not get a great time slot, with Will & Grace weakening and Brooklyn Nine-Nine probably getting paired up with Superstore. With NBC’s strategy, it probably doesn’t need to do a ton to get renewed, but it will also be far from their most revenue-generating show.

2018-19 Prediction: $82,474

America’s Got Talent: The Champions

I don’t see this winter version of America’s Got Talent doing as good as the summer one, but NBC can likely get away with charging a hefty sum. 

2018-19 Prediction: $185,388

The Enemy Within

While The Enemy Within doesn’t have a time slot yet, the best case scenario is behind The Voice in the spring. I think the appeal will be broad enough that they can convince advertisers to pay a decent amount.

2018-19 Prediction: $92,004

The Gilded Age

This seems like a very niche show that might belong on Fridays or in a lower-priority summer time slot. It should find a fan base, but advertisers may not be convinced that base is strong or broad enough.

2018-19 Prediction: $74,275

The InBetween

I’m predicting The Enemy Within and The InBetween will be the two post-Voice shows in the spring. Being a spring or summer show, I can’t see it pulling in a ton of ad revenue, but enough to cover the costs of the first season.

2018-19 Prediction: $86,485

The Titan Games

Dwayne Johnson is in right now. American Ninja Warrior, less so. This is a more promising unscripted show than some others, but there’s no telling where the show will air. I don’t see a six-figure ad rate, but somewhere close.

2018-19 Prediction: $97,438

The Village

For better or worse, The Village seems to be in vein of This Is Us. NBC will probably use positive This Is Us comparisons to convince advertisers to pay a nice amount for an ad. If they told advertisers there’s a chance it airs following This Is Us, that could convince them even more.

2018-19 Prediction: $120,482

Predicting The Ad Rates: FOX

Here are my predictions for the FOX ad rates, as reported by Variety.

The Simpsons

The Simpsons is still airing after football for many weeks in the fall, but in other weeks will no longer have a new episode of something as a lead-in. I think its value will decrease a little bit as such, since it will be in a slightly tougher situation.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $121,374

2018-19 Prediction: $115,037

Bob’s Burgers

Reruns of Bob’s Burgers make it one of the highest-rated shows on cable, and FOX is trying to capitalize on that by giving it a decent time slot again. It’s been undervalued for quite some time, so I think now that it’s back at 8:30pm, it will be valued higher.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $76,412

2018-19 Prediction: $98,385

Family Guy

Family Guy has the ability to tie or hold its lead-in even on football links. It’s quietly become a stronger show than The Simpsons on some weeks, and will likely be valued as such. With a more compatible lead-in, it should be able to keep its value.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $128,329

2018-19 Prediction: $129,381

Rel

Rel is likely a more cost-effective show for FOX. They’ll probably try to charge more for it than they did for The Last Man On Earth (~$83,000) and attempt to make the 9:30pm time slot more profitable.

2018-19 Prediction: $93,381

The Resident

Due to its stability, FOX could probably get away with charging a little more for The Resident this season. It’s not a huge hit but it will give them passable numbers.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $92,918

2018-19 Prediction: $98,381

9-1-1

The breakout hit of the year for FOX will air in the fall for the first time, though it is moving to Mondays against the likes of The Voice and Dancing With The Stars. Still, the ratings in the fall will likely be the highest they’ll ever be, and FOX will likely want to capitalize on this show as much as possible given how Ryan Murphy shows aren’t always great long-term players.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $104,478

2018-19 Prediction: $163,283

The Gifted

While the ratings for The Gifted were fine in the fall, it’s not clear if FOX actually needs the show after the successes of some midseason dramas. Expectations for the first season were high, and I think the ad rate will come back down to earth a bit for its second season given it will likely hover around high fractionals most of the time.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $126,873

2018-19 Prediction: $106,372

Lethal Weapon

Lethal Weapon doesn’t even have a full third season, and FOX seems weary of its strength with the casting change. I think they see this more of a placeholder for whatever airs there in the spring. With New Fox on the way, it very well not make it out of 2018 alive.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $124,561

2018-19 Prediction: $89,463

Empire

Empire is still a high-rated show, but one that has become extremely overvalued. Unfortunately for FOX, I don’t think they’ll get away with charging as much as they’ve been charging in the past.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $294,141

2018-19 Prediction:  $194,472

Star

Star is a decent companion with Empire. With it not leaving that time slot, FOX and advertisers should know what to expect. The ratings will likely be a little lower as Empire declines, leading to a devaluation.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $144,432

2018-19 Prediction: $122,374

Thursday Night Football

If you ask the heads of FOX a question at a public Q&A, basically every decision they’ve made has to do with Thursday Night Football. Basically, not only does it take up schedule room, it also leaves less money to invest in scripted shows as they likely paid a hefty sum to take it away from CBS and NBC. Whether it’s worth it or not, I see FOX hiking up the rates in the hopes that they can turn both a short-term and long-term profit on this.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $524,047

2018-19 Prediction: $603,825

Last Man Standing

FOX seems high on the revival. It should get a decent ad rate for Friday.

2016-17 Ad Rate: $81,303

2018-19 Prediction: $82,077

The Cool Kids

FOX could have put The Cool Kids on Sundays and Rel on Fridays, but they didn’t. I don’t see it as much of a vote of confidence, but rather something to fill the bottom of the hour.

2018-19 Prediction: $67,445

Hell’s Kitchen

FOX moved Hell’s Kitchen to 9pm, where it will air after a comedy block back-ended by The Cool Kids. Still, they can very likely get away with charging more than what was charged in the 2017-18 season given its stable and reliable ratings.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $79,998

2018-19 Prediction: $88,471

Cosmos: Possible Worlds

Last time Cosmos arrived, it involved Bob’s Burgers airing at 7pm during Daylight Savings Time, with American Dad and Family Guy also shifting time slots. It burned out pretty quickly, but is back again, hopefully with less schedule disruption. It was high-profile when it arrived, but I don’t think this time around is the same.

2018-19 Prediction: $100,385

The Orville

The Orville pulled in solid numbers in its first season, but for some reason was left on the bench. I think the fact it is being saved for midseason will go against its value. It will almost certainly rise from how low the first season’s rate was, though.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $83,627

2018-19 Prediction: $92,374

The Passage

With all the time The Passage was in development, it’s likely FOX won’t shove it into a low-priority time slot. I think they’ll given this one the biggest push of all the midseason shows and convince advertisers it will do well.

2018-19 Prediction: $115,830

Proven Innocent

Proven Innocent is a legal drama, something that broadcast television has seen countless times in the past. I think they’ll prioritize The Passage and Cosmos over it.

2018-19 Prediction: $89,335

MasterChef Junior

While MasterChef Junior pulls in solid ratings, the price asked for an ad in the 2017-18 season baffles me. It almost certainly isn’t so expensive that they need such a high rate to cover the costs. With a Friday time slot looking likely, I see a devaluation here.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $129,935

2018-19 Prediction: $104,385

Predicting The Ad Rates: The CW

Here are my predictions for the CW ad rates, as reported by Variety.

Supergirl

Moving Supergirl to Sunday is a risk for The CW, mostly because they didn’t have success on that night in the past. It also remains to be known if viewers are willing to follow it live to Sunday in a landscape that allows people to watch whenever, wherever they want. My guess is they’ll charge a bit less for an ad.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $48,301

2018-19 Prediction: $39,381

Charmed

A new incarnation of Charmed is coming to The CW on Sunday nights. While this is probably the network’s most anticipated new show, reboots can easily go ignored...just look at Dynasty, a reboot of a show that was once on top of the ratings chart. I’m thinking it gets valued slightly higher than Supergirl, but not as high as something like The Flash.

2018-19 Prediction: $41,839

Arrow

After airing on Wednesday for many seasons, Arrow moved to Thursdays, and now Mondays, as the show that helped rebrand The CW continues to age. The fact that it overachieved a little last season should help to cancel out inevitable declines now that it is moving days again.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $35,165

2018-19 Prediction: $34,731

DC’s Legends of Tomorrow

While not one of the stronger superhero shows, this one has proven that it deserves a decent time slot on the schedule by providing reliable ratings. It won’t be airing after The Flash, though, which could cause it to lose some value.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $43,483

2018-19 Prediction: $36,981

The Flash

While it has declined in the ratings a bit, The Flash continues to be The CW’s highest-rated show. They’ll be sure to charge as much as they can for it.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $65,709

2018-19 Prediction: $71,373

Black Lightning

Black Lightning proved to have a fan base in its first season and will continue to air behind The Flash in the fall. If the ad rate doesn’t spike up, this is a missed opportunity. After all, the first season’s was reportedly lower than that of Life Sentence.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $34,500

2018-19 Prediction: $54,849

Riverdale

Riverdale was one of the top successes last season when it comes to veteran shows, with increased ratings due in part to people finding the show on Netflix. The Live + Same Day ratings faltered a bit by the end, but the show was still undervalued in total. I foresee a nice spike here.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $33,935

2018-19 Prediction: $48,492

All American

All American has Greg Berlanti as an executive producer, but is otherwise very off brand for The CW and doesn’t have a whole lot of hype. Riverdale went 0 for 2 when it came to launching shows last season, which also isn’t a great sign. Advertisers may be weary.

2018-19 Prediction: $29,262

Supernatural

Supernatural is consistently proving its value on The CW, so much so that its ad rate seems like an injustice. I don’t think there will be a huge spike, but somewhat of an increase at least.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $33,287

2018-19 Prediction: $39,814

Legacies

While the final season of The Originals did fine, there’s nothing on the linear ratings side of things that suggested it deserved a spin-off. It makes it easier for the network to promote, but they will also likely recognize it won’t rate anything more than average.

2018-19 Prediction: $30,381

Dynasty

Dynasty is obviously not alive because of first-run ratings, but rather because Netflix paid a ton of money to acquire episodes. It’s like The CW’s own Elementary. Ad revenue is not what keeps this going. A move to Fridays shows they’re not going to try to increase its first-run ratings either.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $38,171

2018-19 Prediction: $18,372

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Its stability should give it a little uptick in value. However, now that it’s in a tougher time slot I still see it being the least-valued CW show. At least Dynasty will have the benefit of local affiliate programming as a lead-in, something that will almost certainly out-rate it.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $15,465

2018-19 Prediction: $17,037

In The Dark

This show seems off-brand and edgy for broadcast television, which could either go in its favor or completely misfire. I think The CW will go conservative.

2018-19 Prediction: $25,812

Roswell, New Mexico

This high-concept drama seems to be destined to air after Supernatural on Thursdays, which isn’t a terrible time slot. It could easily flop, but I think advertisers will see the compatibility and be willing to pay a decent amount for this.

2018-19 Prediction: $32,896

The 100

As The 100 ages, it becomes less likely it will win out on a prime time slot over a new midseason show. No rate was reported by Variety in the 2017-18 season, but regardless I don’t anticipate it pulling in a high ad rate.

2018-19 Prediction: $25,739

iZombie

By the timing of the news, it seems like iZombie’s renewal was a close call. I’m guessing most, if not all, episodes air in the low-viewed summer and the ad rates will reflect that. 

2017-18 Ad Rate: Not reported

2018-19 Prediction: $18,382

Jane the Virgin

Jane the Virgin reportedly has 18 episodes this season, yet has been left on the bench. It’s yet to be seen when it will air, and if it will spill into summer. Its ratings have been low, yet stable. 

2017-18 Ad Rate: $21,360

2018-19 Prediction: $22,371