The Trends Part 3: Less Reliance On The Super-Creator (UPDATED)

Welcome to The Trends! In this season, I talk about the general trends we saw come out of upfronts. If you missed the first two articles, they are found here:
Part 1: Renewing More Low-Rated Shows
Part 2: Massive Time Slot Upgrades to Newer Comedies

Every network has one or two super-creators. For example, ABC has Shonda Rhimes, who has given them Grey's Anatomy, Private Practice, Scandal, How to Get Away with Murder, and The Catch. Her shows used to be automatic pick-ups, and although she is still a super-creator, her popularity isn't what it was even a year ago. While President Channing Dungey mentioned she'd take what Shonda would give her, the second season of The Catch did even worse than the first, and got canceled. Her newest entry, Still Star-Crossed, is going to air over the summer and doesn't have a ton of promotion. While it is airing after The Bachelorette, that far from means automatic hit. She does have two shows on next season's schedule; upcoming law drama For The People, as well as a Chicago Fire-like Grey's Anatomy spinoff. If those shows don't do well, with Scandal ending and How to Get Away with Murder declining, Shonda Rhimes soon may not have the presence she once did. Of course, Grey's Anatomy is still going strong.

While Shonda Rhimes is ABC's only super-creator, they were very close to having two more in Goldbergs creator Adam Goldberg and Blackish creator Kenya Barris. Goldberg gave ABC their midseason comedy entry Imaginary Mary, which was fractional throughout its run and promptly got canceled. He also had in development a Goldbergs spin-off named Schooled, which was to take place in the 90s starring a tertiary character. It wasn't ordered, and Adam Goldberg will have to stay content with The Goldbergs, when he could have had three shows on the air. Kenya Barris had an even worse last couple weeks. His drama pilot Unit Zero was officially passed on, and prized possession Blackish will air on Tuesday now instead of the comfy post-Modern Family time slot that it's known for its three years on the air. Furthermore, while some considered political comedy Libby & Malcolm to be a frontrunner of the pilot season, ultimately it wasn't ordered to series. With both of those passed on, it seemed like the Blackish spin-off would receive a series order. While it did, the backdoor pilot wasn't overly well-received, and the show will air on Freeform where it will almost certainly see much lower ratings.

The above is a key art for Dick Wolf's newest Chicago series, Chicago Justice. He's been cranking out a new show every season, with Justice being the fourth show in the franchise. While its ratings were nothing to brag about on Sundays, they also seemingly weren't terrible. Regardless, it is in a unique situation where a week after NBC released their fall schedule, and it was just recently canceled. Meanwhile, four post-Voice occupants--dramas Taken and Timeless as well as comedies Trial & Error and Great News--have been renewed with lower ratings. Deadline mentioned that Chicago Fire and PD haven't sold into syndication, which has gotten NBC to rethink the whole Chicago plan and maybe downsize. Even breakout freshmen hit Chicago Med, which fizzled out in its move to Thursday but still did better than those post-Voice shows, did not make the fall schedule. Furthermore, Dick Wolf was planning on making a reality show called Law & Order: You the Jury, but between both the existence and failure of FOX's series You the Jury, the consensus is that it probably won't ever make it to air. Wolf can take solace in the fact that his anthology series Law & Order: True Crime will be airing after This is Us, though the shows do not seem to be thematically compatible and it isn't an automatic success. While Dick Wolf is doing better than the days where NBC canceled both Law & Order and new spin-off Law & Order: LA, it seems that a Chicago show is no longer an automatic renewal. It also shows that four shows of one franchise on the air at the same time may be too much, and Dick Wolf fans would rather see Law & Order take on the theme of law than a Chicago show.

Over on FOX, they were very close to having a comedy super-creator with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, who became famous for directing The Lego Movie. With their first FOX show, The Last Man On Earth, becoming a breakout hit in spring 2015, FOX gave the green light to two more of their shows: half-animated, half-live action comedy Son of Zorn, which aired in that highly-coveted Sunday at 8:30 fall time slot; and time traveling comedy Making History. Most of Son of Zorn's run was masked by boosts from football overrun, but without it the show went lower than any other FOX comedy. Making History, meanwhile, premiered low and went lower. FOX rightfully canceled both shows, with The Last Man On Earth hanging in there for a 4th season, though it's no longer a breakout hit. At this point, if we're looking at super-creators at FOX, we should look at the slight resurgence of Seth MacFarlane. He recently lost both The Cleveland Show and American Dad (moved to TBS), and Bordertown was also abruptly canceled after just 13 episodes. With hour-long drama Orville on the fall schedule, MacFarlane will go back to having more than one show on the air. Lee Daniels is another one to watch; while Empire has fallen tremendously, it's still one of the biggest hits on television, and next season they will air the second season of his other music drama, Star, right after it to make up their Wednesday nights.

So to recap, Shonda Rhimes lost The Catch, Adam Goldberg and Kenya Barris didn't exactly have the pilot season they may have wanted, Dick Wolf went from four to two Chicago shows on the schedule, and Lord/Miller went from three and back to one. But Great News carries on. Great News, which comes from Tina Fey, recently hit a 0.7 A18-49 Live + Same Day demo airing directly after The Voice. Like fellow Fey products 30 Rock and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, as well as fellow NBC comedy Superstore, Great News may have a solid streaming fanbase. Or NBC could be in love with Tina Fey and/or really, really hated The Sackett Sisters. Next season, it will air between Will & Grace and This is Us, anticipated to be a time slot that is the best NBC could offer a show in years. The story of Great News is so unprecedented that it has made it into all three installments of The Trends so far. It seems that NBC did not want to keep Tina Fey off the schedule, and gave Great News the treatment not given to The Catch, Libby & Malcolm, Chicago Justice, Son of Zorn, etc. Also, there is Greg Berlanti, who has given The CW Arrow, The Flash, Supergirl, Legends of Tomorrow, Riverdale, and the upcoming Black Lightning. He also has Blindspot still kicking at NBC despite the ratings not being what they used to be. Berlanti's shows make up half of The CW's fall schedule, and it doesn't seem like he'll stop any time soon.While his production company had some shows pitched to other networks that weren't ordered to series, he's still right up there with the ranks of Shonda, Wolf, and co.

What do you think of all this? Let me know in the comments below!

ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Midseason Preview

ABC

For those of you unfamiliar with my ad rate-based metrics, I have calculated the approximate demo number at which the network values each midseason entry, based on its ad rate and last season's average. ABC's ad rate this season increased 3-4%, so I predict the numbers could be off by about
that much. Here they are:

Galavant: 1.44

The Family: 1.27

The Real O'Neals: 1.03

Marvel's Agent Carter: 1.72

The Catch: 2.14

Secrets & Lies: 1.30

Uncle Buck: 0.96

Unfortunately I couldn't find data for American Crime or Of Kings and Prophets. 

It's simple: if the actual demo number is larger than this average, it will be renewed as ABC will see a chance to raise its ad rate and make more ad revenue off the show. If it goes significantly below the number above, ABC will have to lower the ad rate in order for another season to appeal to advertisers, meaning that the show may be more in limbo. The exception would be The Catch, which could easily squeak out a renewal if it goes a little lower than the number above due to the fact that it is so high. Now, for my prediction on these shows. Keep a close watch especially on the freshmen dramas, as they may affect renewal prospects for Castle and Nashville. I'm not putting anything as Certain to be Renewed or Certain to be Canceled, as that kind of assumption really can't be made ahead of time. There's also a possibility that there will be some renegotiating on Secrets & Lies if possible, depending on if it airs in the summer or not.

Likely to be Cancelled	Watching	Likely to be Renewed
Uncle Buck	The Real O’Neals	The Catch
	The Family	Marvel’s Agent Carter
	Galavant	Secrets & Lies

Showdown: The Real O'Neals vs Fresh Off The Boat

	The Real O’Neals	Fresh Off The Boat
Nature	Single-Cam (Tuesday)	Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49)	N/A	1.51
Ad Rate	$80,690	$122,212
Ad Approximation Demo (My Metrics)	1.03	1.56
Range of Ratings (A18-49)	N/A	1.2-1.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49)	1.51 (but has settled around 1.1-1.2)	N?A
% Decline Year-to-Year	N/A	16%
Syndication	N/A	N/A
Seasons	0.5	1.5
Production Company	ABC Studios	20th Century Fox
Extraneous Factors	Protests from various sources against the content and EP Dan Savage	First Asian-American led show on broadcast in 25 years; does well in that demo

Even though its average is a 1.51, Fresh Off The Boat simply isn't living up to its ad rate as of late. The switch back to 8pm come Daylight Savings Time will make keeping up even harder. Not to mention that The Real O'Neals is in-house produced. Protest all you want, but only low ratings will make the show go away. If both settle in the low 1s, it will be a tough decision to see if either will be renewed, as ABC already has five certain renewals when it comes to comedy, one more (Last Man Standing), and a seventh (The Muppets) that may be saved as a bridge show for the fact that they're The Muppets. ABC is really thriving in comedy right now, so I wouldn't be surprised to see both cancelled. ABC will probably be happy with The Real O'Neals if it can settle at a 1.0-1.2, given that's what they bargained for when setting the ad rate. However, that won't be enough to get it renewed based on league average declines unless they have plans to switch it to the post-Modern Family time slot, an unlikely proposition. However, if it settles in at least the mid 1s, ABC will see a chance to capitalize, thus raising the ad rate and making more money off the show. That's something that almost certainly cannot be said about the declining Fresh Off The Boat.

Edge: The Real O'Neals

Showdown: Galavant vs The Muppets

I just can't see a scenario where The Muppets come back in the fall. Any other show and the show would be an easy cancellation. But ABC may see a chance to cut their losses a little bit (which actually isn't as much as many people have thought based on its ad rate) and use it as a bridge comedy or midseason replacement. But most likely as a bridge comedy. I foresee that there may only be one, so let the battle begin. No, we don't know much about how Galavant Season 2 will do, but here's a sense going into the season:

	Galavant	The Muppets
Nature	Musical-Comedy (Sunday)	Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49)	1.33 (last season)	1.51
Ad Rate	$112,914	$122,212
Ad Approximation Demo (My Metrics)	1.44	1.68
Range of Ratings (A18-49)	0.9-2.0 (last season)	1.1-2.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49)	1.25 (Note: inflated slightly by 1.7 special rating)	N/A
% Decline Year-to-Year	N/A	N/A
Syndication	N/A	N/A
Seasons	8 episodes	1 partial season
Production Company	ABC Studios	ABC Studios
Extraneous Factors	Musical comedy, presumably cheap to produce	They’re The Muppets, a very popular franchise. ABC and The Muppets share the same corporate company (Disney)

Galavant premiered to a solid 2.0 last season, before falling to a 0.9 just two weeks later. It was considered one of the more surprising renewals of the season, and extraneous factors must have been a big reason for that. I don't know why ABC is valuing the show so relatively high other than the fact that there must be something we don't know about. That being said, I think The Muppets being a bigger brand may have a more compelling case for a renewal. I'm not saying definitively that either show will or should be renewed, but if one of them was, I would give the edge to The Muppets.

Edge: The Muppets

Will The Family Make It?

ABC All Access 

You would think that a 1.27 A18-49 value wouldn't be so hard to live up to, but The Family has to air between Once Upon a Time and Quantico, neither the ratings hits you may be led to believe based on Internet hype. Maintaining such a number may be hard. If it does well enough for a renewal, that's probably bad news for both Castle and Nashville.

When Will Uncle Buck and Secrets & Lies Air?

Looks to me like Secrets & Lies is planned for the summer, kind of like fellow anthology series Wayward Pines last season on FOX. If not, it's because The Family or more likely Of Kings and Prophets has been pulled from the schedule. Remember that the show's ad price was made when it supposedly was going to be a bridge for Nashville, so it may have lower standards if they push it to the summer.

In terms of Uncle Buck, the scenario that I see is that when the Friday block finishes, which has usually been in April, Uncle Buck does double-duty and is never heard from again. 

ABC ANNOUNCES MIDSEASON SCHEDULE

ABC has announced its midseason schedule. Some notes:

Premiering Week of January 3rd

-Galavant (Sunday at 8)
-The Bachelor (Monday at 8)
-Agent Carter (Tuesday at 9)
-American Crime (Wednesday at 10)
-My Diet is Better Than Yours (Thursday at 8)
-Beyond the Tank (Thursday at 10)

And now, for what you've all been waiting for...the just-announced time slots of midseason shows! Here goes:

-The Real O'Neals will premiere Wednesday, March 2nd double pumped after The Middle and Modern Family. Sound familiar?
-The Family will premiere Thursday, March 3rd at 9, and will move into its regular time slot on Sunday, March 6 at 9
-ABC has decided to go ahead with its Fresh Off The Boat-Real O'Neals Tuesday block, which will premiere March 8
-Of Kings & Prophets takes the 10pm time slot that same night
-The Catch premieres Thursday, March 24 at 10

Other notables:

-The Muppets will come back on February 2 and be off the air by March 1
-TGIT returns February 11
-Nashville returns March 16

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What do you think of the schedule? Let me know, I always enjoy reading your comments!

What Does ABC's Future Look Like?

Hi! I'm Hunter, author of the summer renew/cancel predictions, and this is my first of five posts about the futures of the major broadcast networks. First up is ABC. ABC had a good year in 2014-15, but will that continue? It has Shondaland and a solid Wednesday comedy block to help it, but some shows, such as Agents of SHIELD and Modern Family ended the last season on lows, which could be scary to some ABC executives. How will ABC do in the 2015-16 season? What shows will come back in 2016-17? And how might the network do when its older shows end? Those are some of the questions that I will try to answer!

One of ABC's biggest concerns heading into this season may be what the low finale numbers of Agents of SHIELD, Modern Family, and Black-ish mean. Are the shows going to fall this season? Was it a fluke? Modern Family and Black-ish's finale ratings are more likely to be a fluke. They aired without new episodes of The Middle and The Goldbergs at 8:00 and 8:30. Black-ish is obviously lead-in dependent, but Modern Family shouldn't be affected by repeats as lead-ins, right? Most likely, many viewers watch the whole Wednesday comedy block (or at least The Middle and Modern Family) and either assumed that Modern Family was a repeat as well, or decided that since only the 9:00 hour was new, they would rather DVR the episodes or watch them on Hulu or some OnDemand service. Yes, Modern Family is dying, but not as quickly as the season six finale rating suggests. Agents of SHIELD on the other hand may be in trouble. Luckily for fans, SHIELD has two seasons under its belt, and has been renewed for a third, and since these seasons are all 22 episodes, a forth season will happen. But, SHIELD could be the new Revenge, four-and-done, with not-good ratings by the time it gets to its forth season.

There are four death slots on ABC's schedule, in my opinion: Sundays at 9:00, Sundays at 10:00, Tuesdays at 10:00, and Fridays at 8:30. Sundays at 9:00 aren't as bad as the rest. Revenge and Resurrection both started out doing well when they first aired there, but both shows fell. Revenge was lucky and was on its way to syndication and just got moved an hour to 10:00. Resurrection, however, was canceled after a low-rated second season. Secrets & Lies did decently there last spring, despite looking like it would be canceled at the start. Blood & Oil looks sure to bomb there however. When you go to 10:00 that same night, your chances fall even further. Betrayal, Red Widow, 666 Park Avenue, GCB, and Pan Am all failed there before Revenge moved there and aired its last low-rated season-and-a-half. Quantico is liked by reviewers, which makes me think it has a shot at a full season, but I think that the timeslot will eventually kill it, and I don't expect a season two. Tuesdays at 10:00 have also been very deadly, just ask Forever, Mind Games, Killer Women, Lucky 7, and Body of Proof, the five shows that were canceled after airing there since the end of Private Practice. Beyond the Tank shouldn't do too poorly there, but it's only airing there for a short time, then Wicked City takes over. I originally thought that it could do well, but now that it is premiering at the end of October, and is still only ten episodes, it looks like it will be a victim of poor scheduling, which is especially bad in a poor timeslot, like the one its in. Fridays at 8:30 has also been a bad timeslot. Cristela, The Neighbors, and Malibu Country were all canceled after airing a season here. Will Dr. Ken be different? I highly doubt it.

This year, ABC has six returning comedies (not including Once Upon a Time winter bridge Galavant): Fresh Off the Boat, The Middle, The Goldbergs, Modern Family, Black-ish, and Last Man Standing. ABC has four hours of comedy each week, as they have every year since the 2012-13 season. Even with how well ABC comedy is doing, adding a fifth hour of comedy to the week would be crazy, and ABC is not going to have only one new comedy on the schedule next fall. This means that, unless one of those six is held for mid-season 2017, any renewal of a new comedy (The Muppets, Dr. Ken, The Real O'Neals, Uncle Buck) means a cancelation of one of those. I would be shocked if ABC canceled one of their Wednesday comedies, and if The Muppets didn't do well enough to warrant a renewal. That's five comedy renewals. Dr. Ken and Uncle Buck most likely won't do very well, which leaves Fresh Off the Boat, The Real O'Neals, and Last Man Standing to fight for one renewal. Now, there is a chance that two of these will get renewed. ABC could hold one for mid-season, though that is unlikely, as the last time ABC held a returning comedy for mid-season they had four new comedies in the fall (Suburgatory was the returning comedy, The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife, Back in the Game, and Super Fun Night were the new comedies). The other chance for two of the three getting renewed is if The Middle or Modern Family decide that seven is enough seasons. It doesn't seem very likely for Modern Family to end after season seven, maybe season eight when most of the kids are grown up. But The Middle could decide to end in 2016. If not, Fresh Off the Boat will likely beat The Real O'Neals and Last Man Standing to a renewal, but if so, those two shows could be competing for the final spot. But, even if Last Man Standing is canceled, it could move to FOX or a FOX-owned station.

But, Fresh Off the Boat and Last Man Standing aren't the only returning shows that need to worry about if they are getting another season. Sophomore shows Agent Carter, American Crime, and Galavant all got renewals last May that were more on the surprising side. American Crime was most likely renewed due to critical acclaim and Galavant was renewed most likely due to music sales, because both shows got poor ratings. Agent Carter didn't get as poor of ratings, and the fact that it is a Marvel show helped. How far can these three shows fall to get them canceled? It's a question that will be difficult for us to answer. Secrets & Lies is another show in its second season that isn't so sure to get a third. Last season, it started at a rating that made it look like it would be canceled, but it grew throughout the season and ended up with high enough ratings to be renewed. However, in season two the show will have a new co-star opposite Juliette Lewis and is planned to air in a new timeslot. This could negatively affect the ratings. Nashville is another show that is probably worried about its future. It will be airing its forth full season this year, bringing it to enough episodes for syndication. The ratings have been mediocre in season three, so most likely the things that might get it a season five are music sales and syndication money.

Looking farther ahead, there are a few questions I have about what ABC's 2016-17 schedule will look like. The first is about Friday comedies. I predict that Last Man Standing will not return to ABC, so what will ABC do on Fridays? ABC is definitely going to still have four hours of comedy, and I don't see them putting an hour anywhere else on their schedule. So what comedies will go there? At least one returning comedy will go there, maybe two. I think two will go there, and I'm predicting Fresh Off the Boat and Black-ish. Those two are most likely going to be the lowest rated of the six comedies they renew. Another day that's scheduling could be interesting is Thursday. If The Catch gets a full second season, will it stay on Thursday, or will it move to another day? Two other returning dramas that could end up moving are Agents of SHIELD and Nashville (if it is renewed). Both shows get mediocre ratings, especially Nashville, and SHIELD is falling. Could SHIELD move to 10:00? Could either show move to Sunday? I think either is very possible.

The Middle and Modern Family don't have many more seasons left in them, they will both be entering season seven this fall. After they end, what comedies will be ABC's dependable veterans? I think that The Muppets and The Goldbergs will take over. The Muppets looks like it will be a hit, and The Goldbergs is going to be in its third season this fall and it has been growing out of its lead-in of The Middle regularly. ABC's comedy future looks a lot better than most networks'.

What did you think of this article? Leave your thoughts in the comments!