Relative Ad Rates: ABC

Relative Ad Rates

Show	Ad Rate	Relative
America's Funniest Home Videos	55885	48
Once Upon a Time	110710	96
Secrets & Lies	95517	83
Time After Time	89356	77
Quantico	102430	89
Dancing with the Stars	110463	96
The Bachelor	126515	109
Conviction	105981	92
The Middle	123594	107
American Housewife	93439	81
Imaginary Mary	74044	64
Fresh Off The Boat	101045	87
Downward Dog	60977	53
The Real O'Neals	71869	62
Marvel's Agents of SHIELD	102254	88
The Goldbergs	154120	133
Speechless	134861	117
Modern Family	208938	181
Black-ish	139828	121
Designated Survivor	166896	144
American Crime	59736	52
Grey's Anatomy	219152	189
Notorious	141278	122
Scandal	177213	153
How to Get Away with Murder	215055	186
The Catch	116389	96
Last Man Standing	81303	70
Dr. Ken	61217	53
Shark Tank	97537	84
20/20	72190	62

Relative Ratings

P.S. Don't bother scrolling down. Everything that needs to be seen is already in the picture.

The Consensus
First off, every single one of the comedies is overperforming. While The Real O'Neals still didn't do enough in raw for a full season, the rest of the weekday comedies look strong, and if contract negotiations work out, expect most if not all of the rest of the comedies to come back for another season. It's trickier on the drama side of things; if history repeats itself, Marvel's Agents of SHIELD is most likely done. It's decent in M18-34, but the fact that the other demographics are so low, combined with the fact it's been preempted for a rerun of a magic show amongst other times, tells me there probably isn't much time left for it. Once Upon a Time too may have some troubles coming, especially if ratings continue to fall in the spring. Last season, the correlation turned into a causation for the cancellations of Castle and Nashville, and Once could be headed the same way.

Ad Rates and Ratings: CBS Edition 2

If you've stuck with The TV Ratings Guide since the fall, or noticed or menu at the top, you probably figured out that I've been doing some research about the advertising rates of certain shows and the possible correlation to ratings. I have been working on a few modifications to my research, as
follows:

-In the first edition, I stated: "Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say CBS is expecting another 1.857 average." Yeah, that's pretty lazy. So I took the time to figure out the approximate percentage change in ad rates year-to-year, using the ad rates given by Variety. I've adjusted the numbers accordingly below.

-It is worth noting that these ad rates are based on C3, or even C7, ratings. These ratings are not typically released to the public so the A18-49 numbers are our best indicators. But from the small amount of data released, it appears that most shows experience a tenth or two increase from A18-49 to C3 (some, like Scream Queens and Empire, are said to have increases even higher). The numbers presented below are still using A18-49 averages, but something to keep in mind is these numbers are most likely slightly deflated.

-Finally, I have read that networks are encouraged to slightly overprice an ad, because they don't want to price it too low and not make the maximum amount of profit. Meaning, the "expected number" using a 1:1 correlation could be slightly inflated in this respect. Regardless, they shouldn't be too far off.

OK, so CBS's ad rates fell 8.3% this season from last season, meaning the numbers below are 8.3% lower than the ones originally presented. I haven't deleted the original post though, so feel free to dig for it by using the search bar.

Now, for some numbers:
CBS average ad rate 2014-15: $135,191.74
CBS average ad rate 2015-16: $123,965.05
CBS A18-49 average 2014-15: 1.857
CBS A18-49 (possible expected) average 2015-16: 1.703

Again, the C3 numbers are slightly higher than the A18-49 numbers, and this research is still in the preliminary stages. But I wanted to share it with you readers anyway. Here are the updated numbers:

-Madam Secretary: 1.25

-The Good Wife: 1.30

-CSI: Cyber: 1.10

-Supergirl: 2.21

-Scorpion: 1.87

-NCIS: LA: 1.49

-NCIS: 2.04

-NCIS: NO: 1.65

-Limitless: 1.53

-Criminal Minds: 1.82

-Code Black: 1.76

-The Big Bang Theory: 3.73

-Life in Pieces: 1.999 (let's call it a 2.0)

-Mom: 1.71

-Angel from Hell: 1.67

-Elementary: 1.42

-Hawaii 5-0: 1.05

-Blue Bloods: 1.02

Are these numbers telling of anything? Only time will tell. However, I've found that they may be an important predictor of whether that veteran bubble show will get renewed or not. It's not perfect, but it's something. If anyone wants to chip in and give critique or even help with my research, let me know!

Ad Rates and Ratings: NBC Edition 2

If you've stuck with The TV Ratings Guide since the fall, or noticed or menu at the top, you probably figured out that I've been doing some research about the advertising rates of certain shows and the possible correlation to ratings. I have been working on a few modifications to my research, as follows:

-In the first edition, I stated: "Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say NBC is expecting another 1.3 average." Yeah, that's pretty lazy. So I took the time to figure out the approximate percentage change in ad rates year-to-year, using the ad rates given by Variety. I've adjusted the numbers accordingly below.

-It is worth noting that these ad rates are based on C3, or even C7, ratings. These ratings are not typically released to the public so the A18-49 numbers are our best indicators. But from the small amount of data released, it appears that most shows experience a tenth or two increase from A18-49 to C3 (some, like Scream Queens and Empire, are said to have increases even higher). The numbers presented below are still using A18-49 averages, but something to keep in mind is these numbers are most likely slightly deflated.

-Finally, I have read that networks are encouraged to slightly overprice an ad, because they don't want to price it too low and not make the maximum amount of profit. Meaning, the "expected number" using a 1:1 correlation could be slightly inflated in this respect. Regardless, they shouldn't be too far off.

OK, so NBC's ad rates fell 9.5% this season from last season, meaning the numbers below are 9.5% lower than the ones originally presented. I haven't deleted the original post though, so feel free to dig for it by using the search bar.

Now, for some numbers:
NBC average ad rate 2014-15: $125,245.17
NBC average ad rate 2015-16: $113,348.58
NBC A18-49 average 2014-15: 1.299
NBC A18-49 (possible expected) average 2015-16: 1.176

Again, the C3 numbers are slightly higher than the A18-49 numbers, and this research is still in the preliminary stages. But I wanted to share it with you readers anyway.


-Blindspot: 1.97
-Chicago Fire: 1.47
-The Mysteries of Laura: 0.71
-Law & Order: SVU: 0.89
-Chicago PD: 1.23
-Heroes: Reborn: 1.33
-The Blacklist: 1.87
-The Player: 1.08
-Undateable: 0.50
-Truth be Told: 0.86
-Grimm: 1.04

Are these numbers telling of anything? Only time will tell. However, I've found that they may be an important predictor of whether that veteran bubble show will get renewed or not. It's not perfect, but it's something. If anyone wants to chip in and give critique or even help with my research, let me know!

Are Ad Rates Directly Correlated to Ratings?--Midseason Edition

Unfortunately I don't know the ad rates for all midseason shows, but here are the demos that I predict how a show is expected to do based on its ad rate. I'm still trying to do more on the topic, but for now take a look at the numbers.  

ABC
Galavant: 1.44
The Family: 1.27
The Real O'Neals: 1.03
Marvel's Agent Carter: 1.73
Secrets and Lies: 1.30
The Catch: 2.14
Uncle Buck: 0.96

CBS
Angel from Hell: 1.82

FOX
Bordertown: 1.00
The X-Files: 2.29
Lucifer: 1.02
New Girl: 1.76
Guide to Surviving Life: 1.04
American Idol (Wednesday): 1.77
American Idol (Thursday): 1.57
Second Chance: 1.35
Sleepy Hollow (Friday): 0.65

NBC
The Biggest Loser: 0.79
Heartbreaker: 1.08
You, Me, and the End of the World: 0.72

Are Ad Rates Directly Correlated to Ratings?--NBC Edition 1

Recently the ad rates this series were released (click here). Let's look at NBC now, and see how far off or close some shows' ratings may be from their relative standing in ad prices. For new shows, this is largely due to an over/under estimation of its ratings--for veteran shows, it may depend on expected trends, the demographics it hits, etc.

In the 2014-2015 TV season, NBC's scripted show average for fall series was a 1.3 (1.299 to be more exact). This year's average ad rate for a fall NBC show was $113,667, rounded to the nearest dollar. There were a wide range of numbers, from just under $48,000 (Undateable) to over $190,000 (Blindspot).

Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say NBC is expecting another 1.3 average. Let's see what the predicted ratings for the shows would be if the ratings and ad rates were directly correlated. The numbers listed are for the A18-49 demo unless otherwise noted.

-Blindspot: 2.18
-Chicago Fire: 1.62
-The Mysteries of Laura: 0.78
-Law & Order: SVU: 0.98
-Chicago PD: 1.36
-Heroes: Reborn: 1.47
-The Blacklist: 2.07
-The Player: 1.19
-Undateable: 0.55
-Truth be Told: 0.95
-Grimm: 1.15

When looking at these numbers, one thing strikes out: Law & Order: SVU is fractional at a 0.98. What should be noted is the hypothesis that the show deals with a somewhat controversial and adult topic for broadcast television, and as such may be priced lower since it isn't as appealing to advertisers. That may not be the case, but is a pretty legitimate hypothesis I have heard.

The Chicago shows have numbers a little lower than I would have expected, and it looks like NBC may have expected The Blacklist to get a fall bump (but never did). Also, I have to wonder why Undateable is even still on the air, considering that it has an ad price less than some CW shows and if these numbers are telling at all, NBC didn't have too high standards for it. Maybe it is because they didn't want to have to launch two new comedies on a Friday? Regardless, I'm not sure what they were expecting out of Truth be Told, but even though a 0.95 is pretty bad, its ad rate built considerably from the one of its lead-in. And Undateable doesn't have the touchy/adult subject excuse that SVU may have.

Now for my favorite part: naming the winners and losers of the season thus far:

Winners

-Blindspot
-The Dick Wolf Shows
-The Mysteries of Laura
-Undateable

Losers

-Heroes: Reborn
-The Blacklist
-The Player
-Truth be Told

Honorable Mention

-Grimm

What do you think of these numbers? Are they an accurate telling of what NBC expects of these shows? Leave a comment and let us know!