Scorpion Canceled After Four Seasons

Scorpion, a veteran member of the CBS schedule, has aired its final episode. CBS has canceled the series today. Scorpion has been plagued by reports of a syndication struggle, and was left out of the annual CBS mass renewal. This caused for some panic aout the future of the show, and it seems that that panic was valid. Also contributing to the decision was the show's huge 32% drop from season three. This means that the show will end just seven episodes shy of 100 episodes. Scorpion starred Elyes Gabel, Katharine McPhee, and Jadyn Wong, among others.

How do you feel about this news? Will you miss Scorpion? Let us know in the comments below.

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Criminal Minds’ Likely to be Renewed + ‘Instinct’ Downgraded

"Criminal Minds" (CBS)

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of April 24, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.4 / 4.1 / 2.79	-10%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.25	--
3	Mom	1.3 / 1.8 / 1.48	+3%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.42	-18%
5	Kevin Can Wait	0.9 / 2.3 / 1.21	-25%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.14	-10%
8	SEAL Team	0.8 / 1.5 / 1.04	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.8 / 1.1 / 1.01	-19%
10	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
11	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-13%
-	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 0.99	-28%
13	S.W.A.T.	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97	--
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.97	-18%
-	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.94	-28%
17	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.92	-26%
18	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.91	-22%
-	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.85	-21%
21	Instinct	0.6 / 1.3 / 0.88	--
22	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.81	-32%
23	Living Biblically	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.70	--
24	Madam Secretary	0.5 / 0.8 / 0.65	-26%

The table has been updated to reflect the recent renewals for the following series: Mom, NCIS, Bull, SEAL Team, Hawaii Five-0, S.W.A.T., NCIS: New Orleans, NCIS: LA, Blue Bloods, MacGyver, and Madam Secretary. These were correct predictions by the CBS Renew/Cancel.

As of 4/19, Living Biblically has been pulled from the schedule and is effectively cancelled with five episodes unaired. This was a correct prediction. 

Below are two prediction changes in this edition of the CBS R/C. An analysis for each adjustment has been provided.

CRIMINAL MINDS The show has been on the bubble for practically the entire season. It's a tough one to predict, considering that the networks are increasingly unpredictable with what they're willing to keep. Some shows that seem like they should be relieved of duty are just not to that point as far as the network heads are concerned. I previously decided to lean into a cancellation for Criminal Minds prior to all the early renewals, but I've since decided to upgrade it to a likely renewal. While it's likely to be the veteran series to end first due to its age, declining ratings, costs, and lack of full net ownership, it's still a respectable player that has done OK in its move to 10. As the season's gone on, its stability in the 0.9-1.0 range doesn't look horrible, especially since none of their new dramas (SEAL Team and S.W.A.T., specifically) have managed to regularly rate above that. It hasn't been moved to a lower priority Friday or Sunday slot at this point, so while the present time slot downgrade suggests CBS is phasing the procedural out, there is room for alternative scheduling before it's completely off the air. CBS can probably do better with cheaper alternatives going forward (especially on Wednesdays), but a 14th season that sends the series off with over 300 episodes might be just what CBS and ABC Studios are capable of negotiating. They frankly don't have to do anything for the show -- in fact, the network failed to give "final seasons" to past long-running dramas -- but some of them weren't around for as long as Criminal Minds. CSI is probably the most comparable series in this situation, and that iconic show at least had a movie to wrap things up (as much as you can "wrap up" for a crime procedural). Something tells me that CBS knows they could've prepared better for CSI's end, and they'll do a bit better with Criminal Minds. That might mean a reduced order for the last season, but they can find a way to air it if it's worth producing and ensures a smooth transition into CBS's next chapter post-Minds.

My reluctance to promote a renewal prediction throughout the current season has been, perhaps, tied up in my thinking that CBS has to end something soon. Criminal Minds always seemed like a fair candidate (and it is, no doubt) because of the reasons I've already mentioned, in addition to its inability to launch successful spinoffs like NCIS has achieved. It's in a vulnerable position where the network could truly take it or leave it, so I don't think my general pessimism has been unwarranted with that in mind. Ultimately, CBS didn't end any veterans last year, though they did send Code Black and Elementary to summer. This pretty much says that while they still need slots on the fall schedule for new shows, they don't really need to cancel much in order to make that happen. Criminal Minds could be held until midseason, as could Scorpion and/or Madam Secretary. It's doable, or at least CBS would probably think as much and navigate that scheduling when the deadline hits. Whether or not it makes financial sense for CBS to keep all these shows is another question altogether, but it's nearly impossible to predict how negotiations for Criminal Minds will go when it's consistently down to the wire between the network and studios involved. The positive it's looking at is that cast contracts for the original actors seem to be good to go for a Season 14, which should make talks somewhat easier. As such, I'm leaning into a renewal at this point, but a cancellation would be far from a surprise. 
INSTINCT The show is simply too weak to return in a priority slot next season. Through five airings, it's averaged a 0.88 rating in the demo, including two recent 0.6 performances without sports/event exposure. CBS has renewed soft midseason shows before, but the ones that come to mind had support from existing franchises (CSI: Cyber and Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders) in addition to strong international potential. Instinct really doesn't boast the same kind of package, and CBS doesn't need it. The only reason it might stand a chance is if it's internally liked to an irrational degree, but based on ratings performance, its late-in-the-game scheduling, and CBS's two freshman drama renewals, it's likely to be cancelled. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Superior Donuts’ & ‘Criminal Minds’ Updated, ‘Instinct’ Debuts

"Superior Donuts" | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of March 23, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.87	-7%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.34	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+5%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.44	-16%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.0 / 2.3 / 1.25	-22%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.20	-16%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.17	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.8 / 1.5 / 1.05	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.03	-17%
10	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	--
11	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-12%
-	Instinct	- / 1.0 / 1.00	--
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
14	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 0.99	-29%
-	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-16%
16	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
17	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.95	-27%
18	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.93	-21%
20	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
21	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
22	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.83	-30%
23	Living Biblically	0.7 / 0.8 / 0.73	--
24	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.66	-25%

CRIMINAL MINDS The reasons for the show's uncertain fate have been written and explored time and again: it's old, expensive, co-owned, and has had to endure cast shake-ups in the past few years. Its move to 10pm this season accelerated its y2y decline, and while it's averaging an OK 1.0 rating in the slot, it's not bringing much weight to the night anymore. SEAL Team is arguably wasting the potential in Criminal Minds' previous 9pm slot, but there's reason to believe that CBS will want to protect its 100% owned, highest rated freshman drama, and #3 drama over the aging veteran. They need space on the schedule and this would be a reasonable cancellation to make if the costs are just too high for what they're getting out of a 13 year old show. The argument could be made that it deserves a sendoff season, though CBS isn't notorious for providing that treatment. Complicated negotiations with ABC Studios will likely leave the show off of CBS's early renewal radar, but for the purposes of making a more definitive prediction away from the bubble, I have it as Likely to be Canceled at this time. 
SUPERIOR DONUTS What's clear is that CBS needs to improve their Mondays going forward. Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan are the strongest players on the night from 8-9 and are expected to be around for awhile. The revolving door of new comedies, including 9JKL, Living Biblically, and Me, Myself & I are not. While the Monday comedies are not really anchor-worthy, Superior Donuts is least qualified for that heavy lifting. To be fair, it's only down a tenth or two from the 8-9 block on any given week, but it's failing to make any sophomore gains (it's down 21% y2y) even with a fall start and a full season to play out at the top of an hour. It'll count 34 episodes by the end of the season, which is easily within the range of a painless cancellation. As for CBS's other comedies, Young Sheldon is the comedy breakout CBS needed to develop this year. The Big Bang Theory, Mom, and Life In Pieces are expected back, and that's all the network needs. CBS has made some interesting choices in the past, such as renewing The Odd Couple twice. Something similar could happen to Superior Donuts, but at this point it doesn't seem worth CBS's while to drag another low-rated sitcom to syndication. The quality of their pilots could be the determining factor, and that's not for me to try to predict. From what I see, it's Likely to be Canceled at this time. 
INSTINCT Since it's aired only one episode so far, Instinct is firmly on the bubble. Its 1.0 premiere rating is fine, but it is likely to fall from this data point going forward as we've seen in the past. S.W.A.T. is probably the safest newbie, with SEAL Team fighting and Instinct yet to prove itself as a contender. CBS has renewed midseason shows in the past, though the ones that come to mind were spinoffs (CSI: Cyber and Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders). It shouldn't be included in a batch of early renewals, so I feel comfortable leaving it On the Bubble for now.

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Living Biblically’ Faces Certain Death

Jay R. Ferguson | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of March 12, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.87	+3%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.33	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+5%
4	NCIS	1.2 / 1.6 / 1.44	-16%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.27	-21%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.19	-17%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.17	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.06	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.05	-15%
10	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-12%
-	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	--
-	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.00	-28%
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
14	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 0.99	-16%
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.96	-27%
17	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.94	-19%
-	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.83	-30%
22	Living Biblically	0.7 / 0.8 / 0.75	--
23	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-23%

LIVING BIBLICALLY It's not a surprise that the midseason series tanked in its debut. It was never expected to be in a position to succeed, as CBS's Mondays are lacking in strength under Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan's leadership, as well as the fact that midseason runs tend to be rough. With a 0.8 and 0.7 across two airings, the religious sitcom is already certain to be cancelled. There's no upside to its dismal performance, especially for an unowned show that is merely continuing a terrible 9:30 trend. It always seemed like its order was mostly a favor to The Big Bang Theory's Johnny Galecki, who EPs the Warner Bros. production, so the loss doesn't seem significant. Moreover, Superior Donuts is the favorite fractional sitcom that stands a chance to make it out of this season alive, and even that is very far from a sure thing. 
With the expectation of early CBS renewals coming soon, new predictions will be made for Superior Donuts and Criminal Minds in the next edition of the CBS R/C. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Criminal Minds’ Could Go Either Way

"Criminal Minds" | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of February 23, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.92	+3%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.37	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+17%
4	NCIS	1.4 / 1.6 / 1.46	-15%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.29	-20%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.21	-15%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.18	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.09	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.07	-14%
10	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.03	--
11	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.01	-27%
-	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	-11%
13	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-15%
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.96	-27%
17	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.95	-19%
18	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.84	-30%
22	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-23%

CRIMINAL MINDS v. SEAL TEAM Criminal Minds is old, expensive, and only partly owned. Its ratings are just OK in the 10pm slot, and it's part of a disappointing 9-11 block on Wednesdays. It's currently down about 27% year-to-year, a relatively sharp decline that is due in part to its move from 9 to 10. Comparatively, SEAL Team is newer, less expensive, and 100% owned by CBS. The ratings for SEAL aren't strong for its slot and are less impressive than what S.W.A.T. has managed on Thursdays at 10, but it's still one of CBS's top dramas. Both of the Wednesday dramas could feasibly be renewed or cancelled this year, and they're not necessarily in competition, but I get the feeling that Wednesdays will need a shake-up. I'm more skeptical about Criminal Minds at this point and have decided to place it on the bubble. As always, its fate relies on negotiations between CBS and ABC Studios, which is always a risky place to be in. Cast members have come and gone in recent years, so overall costs and cast talks could be what brings the iconic procedural to an end this year after several spinoffs failed to carry on the legacy. CBS has benefitted from a long relationship with Criminal Minds, but they might now be in a place to prioritize their new blood and younger series with syndication prospects. SEAL Team remains likely to be renewed for now. The surprise success of the upcoming new drama Instinct could affect SEAL Team's fate going forward.
SCORPION Yes, it's CBS's second lowest-rated series on the air right now. No, it doesn't have a syndication deal at the moment. However, the Eye Network is never to be counted out when it comes to its ability to sell procedurals into syndication. Madam Secretary and NCIS: New Orleans recently solidified deals that will keep them on the air, which gives hope to Scorpion from the same 2014 class. While Person of Interest already had a syndication deal when its final season was announced, I can see Scorpion getting similar treatment with a benched 13-episode fifth season, which would give CBS more time to sell it and add episodes to the package. They could also renew it for a 22-episode fifth season and still bench it, similar to Elementary at present. Realistically, CBS does not bring it back to the fall schedule with its current ratings. However, if they can find midseason slots for shows like Elementary and Code Black with varied episode counts, it seems plausible that Scorpion can continue in some fashion while its afterlife opportunities are looked at. It seems unlikely for CBS to just drop the show completely after four seasons, when there isn't a recent precedent for that. As such, it's still likely to be renewed.

CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Young Sheldon' Starts Strong

CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My current predictions are current as of September 29, 2017.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	- / 4.1 / 4.10	+32.2%
2	Young Sheldon	- / 3.8 / 3.80	--
3	Kevin Can Wait	- / 2.3 / 2.30	+42.9%
4	NCIS	- / 1.6 / 1.60	-7.0%
5	Me, Myself & I	- / 1.6 / 1.60	--
6	SEAL Team	- / 1.5 / 1.50	--
7	Bull	- / 1.3 / 1.30	-9.1%
8	Criminal Minds	- / 1.3 / 1.30	-6.5%
9	NCIS: New Orleans	- / 1.0 / 1.00	-15.2%
10	Scorpion	- / 1.0 / 1.00	-16.7%

The Big Bang Theory Status: Already Renewed
Currently in its 11th season, The Big Bang Theory has already guaranteed itself a 12th season to air in 2018-19 thanks to CBS's two-year renewal back in March. Could it be dethroned over the course of the season by its shiny new successor? That's likely to be the only interesting challenge it'll have this season, but one it may not mind losing. 
Young Sheldon Status: Likely to be Renewed The prequel-spinoff of The Big Bang Theory debuted to a strong and unprecedented 3.8 rating and 17 million viewers on Monday, holding on to 93% of the mother show's audience in the demo. This performance is nothing short of incredible to launch the fall season for CBS. The network has already given Young Sheldon a full-season order to reward it and to continue the good work. While this start is beyond great, it's too soon to say how the season will unfold. The series returns on Thursday, November 2 at 8:30pm and will face ABC's Grey's Anatomy, NBC's The Good Place, FOX's Gotham, and The CW's Supernatural. 
Kevin Can Wait Status: Likely to be Renewed In the Look Ahead article I wrote last week I outlined my concerns for the second season of the Kevin James-led sitcom. In short, with Leah Remini on board as a series regular and Erinn Hayes out, the show has a lot to prove to its core audience, as well as the new fans it seeks to gain by adding Remini as a controversial key player. The season premiere on Monday scored a very respectable 2.3 rating (-12% from its S1 premiere), which looks worse when you account for its mediocre 60% retention from Young Sheldon. Regardless of the inflated nature of premiere night, this is a strong number for the show and it will hope to retain as much of that audience as it can going into next week and the weeks following, especially when it must anchor Mondays again come November.
NCIS Status: Likely to be Renewed So far this season, NCIS remains the highest-rated drama series the network has. It has been CBS's #1 drama for years and continues to rank near the top across all of scripted television. The network can still use it as a launchpad for new shows, or continue to nurture the likes of a Bull. There's little reason to believe that the final season is upon us yet.
Me, Myself & I Status: Likely to be Renewed A 1.6 rating for a comedy on CBS is objectively fine in 2017, but this series stands a lot to lose in the coming weeks and in November when it has to compete without the major viewing benefits that The Big Bang Theory and Young Sheldon bring to the line-up. It may be the victim of a bad time slot, or an unlikely hero that actually helps keep up the back-end of the night. For now, there simply aren't enough data points to suggest it's not safe, but that could change as drastically as next week.

SEAL Team Status: Likely to be Renewed The new David Boreanaz-led military drama brought in a 1.5 rating on Wednesday with almost 10 million viewers. Compared to last fall's debuts, this lags behind Bull (2.2) and MacGyver (1.7), but exceeds the Thursday premiere of Pure Genius (1.0). Looking back, Criminal Minds earned a 1.9 for its Season 12 premiere last year in the same slot. Considering all of that data, it appears to be a decent start for an untested property in a nice time slot. If it holds on to most of that audience it should be fine going forward.
Bull Status: Likely to be Renewed One of CBS's two returning sophomore dramas, Bull returned to a 1.3 rating on Tuesday in its same time slot as last year. This result is down 40% from its series premiere and up 15% from its Season 1 finale (1.1). It's not a very encouraging number, but it is one of the stronger young properties CBS has to work with right now. Barring any kind of major collapse, the show and star Michael Weatherly should likely be around again next fall.
Criminal Minds Status: On the Bubble This show has been on a noticeable downward trend as it's aged and has faced cast changes and cost negotiations with ABC Studios. Its 1.3 rating on Wednesday night is respectable for 10pm, where it tied NBC's Chicago PD in the demo and beat ABC's Designated Survivor (1.1). Looking inward, it even beat Scorpion (1.0) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.0). However, the Season 13 premiere was down 32% from last year's premiere, when it aired in the 9pm hour, and saw a decline of 19% from the Season 12 finale. This is the second oldest series on CBS, and it's starting to show cracks. The network did not get rid of any veteran dramas last year, and my gut is telling me that this series might be vulnerable by May as CBS tries to phase it out. On top of costs and cast changes it has not been able to launch a successful spinoff, which could be detrimental to its future on CBS. How the other veterans perform this year could be helpful to clear up its future, but at the moment the Season 14 forecast is not easy to predict either way and likely won't be for the foreseeable future.
NCIS: New Orleans
Status: Likely to be Renewed The latest spinoff of the valuable NCIS franchise premiered to a 1.0 rating on Tuesday night, which was down 29% from its Season 3 premiere and down 10% from its Season 3 finale. This isn't good, but CBS may not be so quick to let go of its third wheel in the NCIS franchise just yet when it has had trouble grooming new properties to replace it. 
Scorpion Status: Likely to be Renewed Scorpion also returned to a 1.0 this week, which was down 33% from its Season 3 premiere and a 17% slide from its Season 3 finale. This looks worse than the slide for New Orleans despite similar results, and it stands as a single property apart from any franchise support. However, it also benefits from the argument that newer properties remain untested, and the competition for renewals might look different in a few weeks or by the end of the year. A big syndication deal like another show from its class, Madam Secretary, recently got could come in handy about now and make things a whole lot easier on it. I wouldn't be quick to assume this series isn't going to be back yet, and with the likelihood of something from Fridays being cancelled (I'm looking at the yet-to-premiere Hawaii Five-0), something in the realm of a Season 5 of Scorpion would be a decent fit for that night of lower expectations. 
Check back next week for updates, when MacGyver, Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods, Wisdom of the Crowd, NCIS: LA, and 9JKL enter the table. 

CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Kevin Can Wait' Likely to be Renewed

CBS

Welcome to the second edition of The TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of October 8, 2016. *Apologies for the delay in getting this updated for the new season. From now on the watch column will be updated regularly.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	3.5 / 3.8 / 3.61	-3.3%
2	Kevin Can Wait	2.2 / 2.7 / 2.49	--
3	NCIS	1.9 / 2.2 / 2.07	-6.5%
4	Bull	1.9 / 2.2 / 2.05	--
5	Criminal Minds	1.4 / 1.9 / 1.63	-8.9%
6	NCIS: LA	- / 1.5 / 1.52	+15.2%
7	Scorpion	- / 1.5 / 1.50	-15.3%
8	MacGyver	1.1 / 1.7 / 1.37	--
9	NCIS: New Orleans	1.4 / 1.5 / 1.45	-16.3%
10	Hawaii Five-0	1.3 / 1.4 / 1.33	+17.0%
11	Blue Bloods	1.2 / 1.3 / 1.27	+2.2%
12	Madam Secretary	- / 1.1 / 1.10	-8.3%
13	Code Black	1.0 / 1.2 / 1.09	-14.2%
14	Elementary	- / 0.8 / 0.80	-16.7%

Why is "The Big Bang Theory" Certain to be Renewed?
Despite the uncertainty surrounding contract negotiations, especially involving million dollar weekly paychecks for three highly desirable leads, there's little reason to believe that a deal won't be made for The Big Bang Theory to return for an 11th season. Creator Chuck Lorre and CBS President Glenn Geller have said that it's likely to happen, and they want it to happen. I wouldn't think that the biggest comedy of the past few years would abruptly end; rather, I foresee a final season being announced prior to that season's premiere, which could be 12 or beyond.

Why is "Kevin Can Wait" Likely to be Renewed?

Kevin James' return to television has been embraced warmly, as the show has averaged a 2.5 demo in its first three episodes. It dropped half a ratings point in the last two weeks, but it's still above a 2.0, which is great for CBS, even for the post-TBBT timeslot occupant. The real test for the sitcom will be when it anchors Mondays in a few weeks. 

Why is "Bull" Likely to be Renewed?
The freshman drama has one of the cushiest slots on network TV right now, airing behind NCIS and before NCIS: New Orleans. Michael Weatherly jumped from one hit show to another, if its 2.0 average keeps up. 

Why is "Criminal Minds" Likely to be Renewed?

Criminal Minds just debuted its 12th season. That's a huge achievement for a drama these days, and it's still chugging along with mid-to-high 1s as CBS's #3 drama and #5 scripted series. However, it did drop half a ratings point from week one to week two (1.9 to 1.4), which is something to watch as it's also a series low. While still a popular and iconic show, it's certainly no longer in its prime and there will come a point where the costs of keeping it on air become evident and outweigh the benefits. Also, the show is co-owned by ABC Studios which makes licensing fees a definite concern for renewal purposes like it's been in the past. For now it doesn't seem to be in too much immediate danger.

Why is "NCIS: LA" Certain to be Renewed?

Moving NCIS: LA to Sundays was the best decision CBS could have made. The show is thriving right now, scoring a string of 1.5s over its first three episodes of its 8th season. Its currently up 15.2 percent Y2Y and is outperforming Madam Secretary and Elementary, making it the staple for CBS Sundays that neither of the other two have shown to be. 'Certain' renewal might be a bold prediction to make, but I think its chances are very strong as part of an important franchise to CBS.

Why is "Scorpion" Certain to be Renewed?
Third guarantees fourth.

Why is "MacGyver" On the Bubble?

I'll admit to being completely floored that MacGyver managed to pull out a 1.7 premiere rating. Social media engagement is difficult to analyze for CBS shows, but apparently there was a base for this and they tuned in on a Friday night at 8:00. Week one was a major success and CBS had to be thrilled. Things looked pretty good in week two with a slight drop to a 1.4, but things got worse in week three with a slide to a 1.1. To be safely in the green the show really needed to hover above the 1.3-1.4 range. That would've been solid and something CBS could work with, but a future at or below 1.1 puts it below Blue Bloods and Hawaii Five-0 and just makes it hard to support. We'll see if it continues to drop or if it hit its bottom. 

Why is "NCIS: New Orleans" Certain to be Renewed?

Third guarantees fourth.

Why is "Hawaii Five-0" Likely to be Renewed?

This one could've gone any number of ways throughout the past few seasons and the same flux could very well happen again. It's not a young show, currently in season 7. It consistently ranks in the bottom half of CBS's slate, but it doesn't collapse either. Its afterlife on Fridays has been consistently solid on a night of lower expectations. It's super compatible with Blue Bloods and the duo has made a strong case for renewal in the past few seasons with freshman crops that haven't been outstanding. I'm betting on its continued success this season until something proves me otherwise.

Why is "Blue Bloods" Likely to be Renewed?

Literally everything said above about its sister show is applicable here.

Why is "Madam Secretary" Certain to be Renewed?

Third guarantees fourth.

Why is "Code Black" Likely to be Canceled?

Should it even have been renewed in the first place? The medical drama had an 18-episode first season that ended in February and averaged a 1.27, and somehow got saved. I don't expect the same fate after what is likely to be another short season. Apologies out to Rob Lowe, who was added to the show after The Grinder was canceled; with his addition came a 14 percent decline in ratings from an already-low performance. Not to mention, CBS also has the medical drama Pure Genius slated for premiere soon, which gives Code Black some direct competition that it doesn't need.

Why is "Elementary" Likely to be Canceled?
The only reason the show is still on the air is because of its lucrative syndication deal with WGN America, which, by most accounts, seemed like a far premature deal to make for this show ($3m/episode for 0.8s). CBS did the best they could to make this show seem moderately successful long-term by keeping it in a cushy Thursday timeslot for 4 seasons, until they finally moved it to the Sundays at 10 death slot earlier this year. There, it's shown its true value to the network. It was the second-lowest rated show on CBS last season and is currently on track to remain the lowest this season. 

CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'CSI: Cyber' Needs Critical Tech Support

CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of March 15, 2016. (Please Note: At the time of posting, the final 3/14 ratings for Supergirl, Scorpion, and NCIS: LA were not available. Thus, the 3/14 ratings will be factored into the index table in the next edition.)

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show Title	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	--	--
2	NCIS	2.0 / 2.7 / 2.27	-5.4%
3	Life in Pieces	1.8 / 2.6 / 2.02	--
4	Scorpion	1.5 / 2.2 / 1.84	-20.0%
5	Supergirl	1.4 / 3.1 / 1.77	--
6	NCIS: New Orleans	1.5 / 2.5 / 1.76	-16.2%
7	Criminal Minds	1.5 / 2.0 / 1.76	-29.6%
8	Mom	1.5 / 1.8 / 1.69	-26.5%
9	2 Broke Girls	1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63	-18.5%
10	Mike & Molly	1.6 / 1.7 / 1.62	-16.9%
11	Angel from Hell	1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42	--
12	Limitless	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.41	--
13	NCIS: LA	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.34	-16.3%
14	Madam Secretary	1.0 / 2.0 / 1.28	-11.1%
15	Code Black	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26	--
16	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25	-3.8%
17	Hawaii Five-0	1.0 / 1.4 / 1.14	-5.0%
18	The Good Wife	0.9 / 1.4 / 1.06	-11.7%
19	Elementary	0.8 / 1.2 / 1.04	-20.0%
20	CSI: Cyber	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91	-35.0%

Why is "Life In Pieces" Certain to be Renewed? Remarkably, the freshman comedy has held up very well through 20 episodes. It has averaged 2.02 so far this season, with a season low of only 1.8. There's an audience for it. It's CBS's #2 comedy and #3 scripted series overall. It doesn't hurt that the show has received critical praise and gives CBS a relatively successful single-cam, which they persistently want to find success with. A second season is guaranteed at this point, but the real test will be how it performs away from the cushy post-Big Bang spot next season.

Why is "Scorpion" Certain to be Renewed?
The sophomore drama has been a reliable performer for CBS since its debut in 2014. Even though it's down 20 percent Y2Y, it's averaging a 1.84 and easily remains the network's #2 drama, #4 show overall, and a staple for CBS Mondays.

Why is "Supergirl" Certain to be Renewed?
Supergirl offers the highest ratings for a CBS freshman drama this season, trumping Limitless and Code Black. Some might look at its 20-episode first season as a detriment (not getting the "full 22" treatment), but it really doesn't matter at this point. CBS won't drop its best-performing new drama, especially when the network appears comfortable with and excited over its potential as an installment in the overarching network TV superhero narrative. Like Life In Pieces, the challenge will be its second season ratings. That's an issue for the 2016-17 CBS Renew/Cancel Watch.

Why is "NCIS: New Orleans" Certain to be Renewed?
The NCIS franchise is thriving. There's no way CBS severs such a lucrative franchise this season with all of the shows that are much worse off.

Why is "Criminal Minds" Certain to be Renewed?
The Y2Y drop of 29.6 percent is CBS's second worst of the season to date. However, the drama can still yield a 2.0 when it wants to. That's got serious value. Should CBS move it to 10pm next season? Probably. The 10pm hour is trouble for CBS, with Stalker, Code Black, and even CSI: Cyber's two-episode stint failing to really make a mark. Anything 1.4+ next season would be relative gold for that timeslot, while allowing a new drama to take shape at 9 after Survivor.

Why is "Mom" Certain to be Renewed?"
It's CBS's #3 comedy and will have three full seasons under its belt. You can't exactly apply the "Chuck Lorre" rule of thumb anymore, what with Mike & Molly thrown to the wolves this season, but it's still a valuable player for CBS and will live on at least through a 4th season, if not several more than that. There are absolutely no signs that this one is being eyed for a surprise cancellation.
  Why is "2 Broke Girls" Likely to be Renewed? Can the same reasoning above be applied to 2 Broke Girls? Not exactly. The raunchy comedy is in its 5th season and has been benched and moved repeatedly across CBS's schedule. All things considered, its 1.63 seasonal average isn't so bad, especially compared to Angel From Hell's weak performance in the Thursday at 9:30 timeslot (where 2BG has aired most of its episodes). Plus, it's hard to even entertain The Odd Couple in a comparative sense, seeing as though it'll return a year after it aired, with only 13 episodes for its second season. Nonetheless, The Big Bang Theory, Mom, and Life In Pieces already round out a decent slate of comedies for the network's 2016-2017 season. There's reason to believe Kat Dennings and Beth Behrs are not CBS's top priority anymore as their show continues to age, but there's little reason to believe that it won't at least get a 13-episode sixth (and final) season a la Mike & Molly. If CBS keeps just two comedy hours in the fall, then I suspect 2 Broke Girls will be benched. If CBS tries three comedy hours again, then I suspect 2 Broke Girls will be slotted in the fall. Time will tell, but the comedy will more than likely see a sixth season, even if its a short and final one.
Why is "Limitless" Likely to be Renewed?
This one has been the toughest to call for some time now. It's doing about the same as Code Black in recent months, which isn't a positive thing. However, it's a well-liked procedural that fits the CBS bill, boasts a higher seasonal average, and had the confidence from CBS with 22 episodes compared to Code Black's 18. I'm betting on CBS being generous with another of its freshman dramas, but I don't know that the same generosity can be extended to both Limitless and Code Black.

Why is "NCIS: LA" Certain to be Renewed?
Compared to its sister shows, NCIS: LA appears to be the weakest in face-value ratings. However, it's doing important work in the Monday at 10 timeslot. Not only has it saved that slot from previous failures (namely, Hostages and Intelligence), but it's putting up CBS's best 10pm numbers, often higher than CSI: Cyber, Limitless, Code Black, Elementary, and Blue Bloods. That power is not to be diminished. Again, it's part of an advantageous franchise that CBS isn't going to break up this season with many shows passively failing to push it out of contention.

Why is "Madam Secretary" Likely to be Renewed?
This show has fallen so far under the radar when it comes to talking CBS renewals and cancellations, but that's in the show's ultimate benefit. Sunday's a rough night for CBS, and with the help of football/60 Minutes overrun, Madam Secretary has so far managed to keep a pulse. CBS is already ending The Good Wife on Sundays, and CSI: Cyber, by most accounts, will be joining it at a much faster pace. They can't cancel the entire night, and this one will have two full seasons by May. A four-season run might be a legitimate investment that CBS is willing to make, with Tea Leoni temporarily serving as the new Julianna Margulies.

Why is "Code Black" Likely to be Canceled? I have my reservations about Code Black that have kept it at a cancellation level for the majority of its run. Its the weakest freshman show for the network with only a 1.26 average after 18 episodes. Traditional renew/cancel reasoning would suggest that both of those data points (1.26 average + 18-episode season) are cause for certain cancellation. However, broadcast television standards are slowly changing, Les Moonves has claimed that "around five" of the network's freshman series will be renewed, and the general ratings bar is slightly lowered every season to account for the expected annual declines. Could Code Black somehow, in some way, pull off a major win and get its second season? Yeah, it could, but it's a real reach if Limitless gets favored first. Also, Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders sequel/spinoff series will be premiering this week, which could be a determining factor for Code Black. Keep your eyes on this one in the coming week or so, amidst CBS's annual early announcements (last year was Sunday, March 22) and the arrival of Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders.

Why is "Blue Bloods" Certain to be Renewed? Blue Bloods is the staple for CBS Fridays, putting up the best numbers on the night even at the latest hour. It's down a remarkably thin 3.8 percent Y2Y and has time to kill before CBS needs to move new veterans into the Friday Retirement Farm.

Why is "Hawaii Five-0" Likely to be Renewed? Like Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0 is a reliable performer on Fridays. It's the third lowest-rated show on the network, but it's a Friday show and gets some slack for that. With CBS's new batch of dramas having varied levels of success, plus one drama already ending and a good two on the foreseeable way out, some veterans with syndication benefits will likely get spared. 
Why is "Elementary" Likely to be Renewed? Elementary has an incredibly lucrative $3M/episode syndication package with WGN, which is largely what has kept it around for four seasons with the low ratings it consistently has. It's moving to Sundays at 10 this season, which is where it'll have to prove its ultimate value. If it can manage to average ~1.0 in that slot, there's no reason to expect CBS to turn its cheek on its syndication prospects after this season, even for a 13-episode fifth and final run.

Why is "CSI: Cyber" Certain to be Canceled?

It's handily the lowest-rated show on the network and had its season two order cut to 18 episodes. Anyone who predicts a renewal for this one knows something that I don't. It's been said that international sales and the tie-in to the larger CSI universe can help it, but does CBS really have the room or affection for more seasons of a show that has 29 episodes, a network-low 0.91 seasonal average, gained and lost a star in a single season (Ted Danson), aired two episodes out of its timeslot, and got its episode order cut short? CBS might as well bring Medium back if they are interested in keeping Patricia Arquette and a familiar property on television.

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What do you think of my predictions? Feel free to share your thoughts and predictions below.