Several TV-related websites predict renewals and cancelations using separate methodologies. When renewal and cancelation announcements were being made, we kept track of several websites' predictions and how accurate they were. We compared our predictions to those of TV by the Numbers' Cancel Bear, TV Grim Reaper, TV Predictor/The Cancel Beast, TV Watch Us, and Spotted Ratings' Renewology.
To render the most accurate results, we assigned two points to a correct prediction, zero points to an incorrect prediction, and one point to a show that was renewed or canceled while the site had the show as on the bubble. It should be noted that The TV Ratings Guide, The Cancel Beast, and Renewology had a prediction for every show.
In both the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, The TV Ratings Guide had the most accurate predictions. This season, we slipped to 3rd place. Renewology, which is a system that takes out human bias, had the most accurate predictions, with TV Grim Reaper finishing in 2nd. The good news for TVRG is we had more correct predictions than every site except for SpottedRatings' Renewology.
TV Grim Reaper considers a few shows that had Renew/Cancel decisions as being summer shows: Quantico, Elementary, and Code Black, and as such did not offer predictions for any of the three. With all other sites making predictions for them, they were accounted for in the final standings. TV Grim Reaper received one point for all three shows since technically there were no correct or incorrect predictions. The TV Ratings Guide had incorrect predictions for Quantico and Elementary, but a correct prediction for Code Black.
Key Correct Predictions
All sites had many similar predictions, with the final tally coming down to a smaller batch of shows. Even pure bubble shows like Scorpion, for example, was counted as an incorrect prediction for everyone. The following are our key correct predictions, meaning we were one of two sites at most that correctly predicted the fate of a show.
One key correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide was Code Black; while the other sites who predicted the show's fate predicted a renewal, TVRG correctly predicted a cancelation. The fact that it is a co-production with ABC Studios likely played a role in the downfall of the mediocre-rated CBS medical drama.
Another key correct prediction was the renewal of AP Bio; while the NBC comedy didn't set the ratings world on fire in its first season, it was given a second chance a la last season's Great News and Trial & Error.
A third key correct prediction was the cancelation of The Mick, which was canceled as a part of FOX's sudden shift of comedy style.
This is not to discount some of our other correct predictions where sites were more split, which include the cancelation of Superior Donuts and the renewal of Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
Key Incorrect Predictions
While we went back and forth with our predictions of these two shows, in the end we turned out to be the only site to incorrectly predict the renewals of iZombie and Dynasty. iZombie in particular went through a period of time during the pre-upfronts news week where it looked dead, but it lives for another season. This is another example of a bubble show that most sites happened to predict the same way.
Another key miss was Once Upon A Time, which was announced as a final season fairly quickly in the season. We were not the only site to incorrectly predict it. Not knowing the exact details of its profits (or lack thereof) on other platforms made this prediction especially tough.
What do you think of our Renew/Cancel coverage throughout the season? Let us know in the comments below! We hope you found our predictions useful, as every site will have their share of incorrect predictions due to not having the numbers of the mindsets of the executives at these networks.
