CBS Renew/Cancel Week 16: An Assessment of the NCIS Franchise

How FBI Became The #1 Franchise On CBS Over NCIS

 

NCIS: New Orleans Renewed by CBS

CBS has ordered a seventh season of NCIS: New Orleans. The series, a spinoff of their top scripted program, has performed decently this season despite a 20% year-to-year decline. It started off its season on Tuesdays before being bumped off the schedule to make room for FBI: Most Wanted. It moved to Sundays, airing at 10 behind sister series NCIS: Los Angeles, and has been a noted improvement on previous timeslot occupant Madam Secretary, with its low in the slot matching Madam's high. The Big Easy-set series stars Scott Bakula, CCH Pounder, Vanessa Ferlito, Rob Kerkovich and Necar Zadegan. This is a correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide.

Sneeze Alert! Shows Calling in Sick in 2020 (With Updates from Rebecca Bunch)

Is it time to panic?  It is another presidential conveniently scheduled in an election year, rife with non-political drama.  Shall most of the simpletons start reciting the 80's REM fluke "It's the End of the World?"  For those asking these questions, follow The TV Ratings Guide's daily ratings, which are bleaker than these foul headlines with Corona.  Still fearing the boogeyman will get you as your TV shows are affected by the changes?

Shake it off!

This is a mess of proportions, yes.  This is, dramatic, yes.  But all that is happening with television is some shows are taking a break just in case they caught the world's cold.  To navigate the list below, here's your guide:

1. Production Halted = The show was filming, and the cast got to call in sick!  Let's hope they get to play hookie and enjoy the malls.

2. Production Delayed = The show was due to film, and the cast/crew now have more time to prepare.  Splendid, as it will give the actors more time to get into character.

3. Blue Shows = Broadcast Network Shows.  These show usually have their fractional ratings reported after 9:30AM PST every morning on this site.

4. Red Shows = Streaming Successes.  Their ratings data is a tightly guarded secret in 2020, much like the art of male and female warfare.

5. Green Shows = Syndicated programming.  Remember this fanciful novelty?  Much like the Green Party, it was trendy in the 80's and always a favorite amongst the counter culture.

6. Cable Shows = Shows airing on traditional TV, but not the main five networks.

Production Halted

All Rise (CBS)
American Idol (ABC)
America’s Got Talent (NBC)

The Amazing Race (CBS) (*2)
Angelyne (Peacock)
Animal Kingdom (TNT)
Atlanta (FX)

Batwoman (The CW)
Big Shot (Disney+)
The Blacklist (NBC)
Bob Hearts Abishola (CBS)
The Bold and the Beautiful (CBS)
The Bold Type (Freeform)
Carnival Row (Amazon Prime)
Charmed (The CW)
Chicago Fired (NBC)
Chicago Med (NBC)
Chicago PD (NBC)
Claws (TNT)
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
Doom Patrol (HBO Max)
The Dr. Oz Show (Syndication)
Dr. Phil (Syndicated)
Dynasty (The CW)
The Ellen DeGeneres Show (Syndicated) (*5)
Empire (Fox)

The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+)
Fargo (F)
FBI (CBS)
FBI: Most Wanted (CBS)
Fear The Walking Dead (AMC)
The Flash (The CW)

The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
For All Mankind (Apple TV+)
The Foundation (Apple TV+)
Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (TBS)
General Hospital (ABC)
Genius: Aretha (Nat Geo)
GLOW (Netflix)
GMA3: Strahan, Sarah & Keke (ABC)
God Friended Me (CBS)
Godmothered (Disney Channel)
The Goldbergs (ABC)
The Good Fight (CBS All-Access)

Grace and Frankie (Netflix) (*3)

Grey’s Anatomy (ABC) (*4)
The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
Home & Family (Hallmark)

Jeopardy! (Syndicated) (*5)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
The Kelly Clarkson Show (Syndicated)
Kennedy (Fox Business)
Last Man Standing (Fox)
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)

Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Law & Order: SVU (NBC)
Lights Out with David Spade (Comedy Central)
Lisey's Story (Apple TV+)
Loki (Disney+)
Lord of the Rings (Amazon)
Lucifer (Netflix)

Nancy Drew (The CW)

NCIS (CBS)

NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS)
NCIS: New Orleans (CBS)
The Neighborhood (CBS)
New Amsterdam (NBC)
The Mel Robbins Show (Syndicated)

The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Mythic Quest: Raven's Banquet (Apple TV+)
The Orville (Hulu)
The Oval (BET)
Pardon the Interruption (ESPN)
PEN15 (Hulu)
Pennyworth (Epix)

Power Book II: Ghost (Starz)
Power Book III: Raising Kanan (Starz)
Prank Encounters (Netflix)
The Price Is Right (CBS)
Prodigal Son (Fox)
Queen of the South (USA)
Queen Sugar (OWN)
Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO)
The Resident (Fox)
The Righteous Gemstones (HBO)

Riverdale (The CW)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Schooled (ABC)
SEAL Team (CBS)

See (Apple TV+)

Servant (Apple TV+)

Sex/Life (Netflix)
Simply Halston (Netflix)
Shameless (Showtime)
Sistas (BET)

Snowfall (FX)

Snowpiercer (TNT)

Stranger Things (Netflix)

Supergirl (The CW)

Supernatural (The CW)

Superstore (NBC)
SWAT (CBS)
The Talk (CBS)

Tamron Hall (Syndication)
Tokyo Vice (Netflix)

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
Tooning Out the News (CBS All-Access)
Trish Regan Primetime (Fox Business)
Untitled Tina Fey/Ted Danson Comedy (NBC)
Van Helsing (Syfy)
WandaVision (Disney+)
Watch What Happens Live (Bravo)

The Wendy Williams Show (Syndicated)

Wheel of Fortune (Syndicated) (*6)
The Wheel of Time (Amazon)
The Witched (Amazon)
Y: The Last Man (FX)
Young Dylan (Nickelodeon)
The Young and the Restless (CBS)
Young Sheldon (CBS)

Production Delayed

American Crime Story (FX)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC) (*7)

The Bachelorette (ABC)
Call Me Kat (Fox)
Card Sharks (ABC)
Euphoria (HBO)

Family Feud (ABC) (*8)
Kevin Can F*** Himself (AMC)

Little America (Apple TV+)
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
Superman and Lois (The CW)

Survivor (CBS) (*9)

Russian Doll (Netflix)

Rutherford Falls (Peacock)
Varsity Blues (Quibi)
The Walking Dead (AMC)

Pilot Season

In addition to delaying already-airing and previously-ordered shows, multiple pilots have already shuttered of delayed production. These include every Universal TV production (including the Ana Gasteyer-led American Auto from Superstore's Justin Spitzer), CBS TV Studios projects such as Clarice, Ways & Means (starring Patrick Dempsey) and The Equalizer (starring Queen Latifah), and all of Disney TV Studios' in-season pilots (including The Big Sky from David E Kelley.

Stray Thoughts

1.  The threat of disease often affects the eager, sophisticated cast members on this drama.  Isn't this anti-climatic for CBS' most polished series?
2.  The principle four cast members are well-above 75, respectively and impressively.  Perhaps it is in solidarity they will take some time away as the world panics and makes a mess.
3. A medical show shutting down production like Grey's Anatomy?  Shall we panic?  Nah. 16 seasons in, and they know how to fake something awful is coming.  The cast likely enjoys some time away.
4. The beloved principal enters his 80's this years and faces a shit sandwich from cancer.  Despite this he is chipper and inspirational.  Halting production perhaps is needed.
5. What the ... is it with those commanding hosts of the mid-80's facing production trouble?  We simpleton viewers love you regardless.  Hurry home, as all of you in this bracket managed to avoid that nasty Herpes mess of the 70's!
6. Punching, biting, bitch-slapping and foreplay?  Yes we know these are contact events, but keep these in your bedroom and don't forget to end such encounters with a tidy kiss.  Or just don't thin that far and enjoy TV.
7. Isn't Family sticky enough?  Perhaps a bottle or Corona shall prevent many arguments.
8. See point 1.  Less sophisticated yet better rated that is.  Does CBS recycle soap operas and/or reality TV?

And if one wants to feed into the doomsday vibe, watch the following:
https://youtu.be/9v0OLW3Qhc8

Perhaps the creative shall dub as follows:

"It's a time of great decision."
"Does this virus stay or up and quit."
"There's no avoiding this conclusion."
"Corona Turns TV into Shit...."

CBS Renew/Cancel: ‘Criminal Minds’ Could Go Either Way

"Criminal Minds" | CBS

Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All in-season, scripted primetime shows airing on CBS in the 2017-18 season are included in the prediction table below. My predictions are current as of February 23, 2018.

The key to the right indicates the colors associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes current season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows. The shows are ordered by their season averages against other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.5 / 4.1 / 2.92	+3%
2	Young Sheldon	1.8 / 3.8 / 2.37	--
3	Mom	1.4 / 1.8 / 1.50	+17%
4	NCIS	1.4 / 1.6 / 1.46	-15%
5	Kevin Can Wait	1.1 / 2.3 / 1.29	-20%
6	Bull	1.0 / 1.3 / 1.21	-15%
7	Life In Pieces	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.18	-7%
8	SEAL Team	0.9 / 1.5 / 1.09	--
9	Man with a Plan	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.07	-14%
10	S.W.A.T.	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.03	--
11	Criminal Minds	0.9 / 1.3 / 1.01	-27%
-	Hawaii Five-0	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.01	-11%
13	NCIS: New Orleans	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.00	-15%
-	Me, Myself & I	0.7 / 1.6 / 1.00	--
15	9JKL	0.7 / 1.5 / 0.97	--
16	NCIS: LA	0.8 / 1.3 / 0.96	-27%
17	Superior Donuts	0.8 / 1.0 / 0.95	-19%
18	Blue Bloods	0.8 / 1.1 / 0.94	-24%
19	Wisdom of the Crowd	0.7 / 1.3 / 0.91	--
20	MacGyver	0.8 / 0.9 / 0.86	-20%
21	Scorpion	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.84	-30%
22	Madam Secretary	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.67	-23%

CRIMINAL MINDS v. SEAL TEAM Criminal Minds is old, expensive, and only partly owned. Its ratings are just OK in the 10pm slot, and it's part of a disappointing 9-11 block on Wednesdays. It's currently down about 27% year-to-year, a relatively sharp decline that is due in part to its move from 9 to 10. Comparatively, SEAL Team is newer, less expensive, and 100% owned by CBS. The ratings for SEAL aren't strong for its slot and are less impressive than what S.W.A.T. has managed on Thursdays at 10, but it's still one of CBS's top dramas. Both of the Wednesday dramas could feasibly be renewed or cancelled this year, and they're not necessarily in competition, but I get the feeling that Wednesdays will need a shake-up. I'm more skeptical about Criminal Minds at this point and have decided to place it on the bubble. As always, its fate relies on negotiations between CBS and ABC Studios, which is always a risky place to be in. Cast members have come and gone in recent years, so overall costs and cast talks could be what brings the iconic procedural to an end this year after several spinoffs failed to carry on the legacy. CBS has benefitted from a long relationship with Criminal Minds, but they might now be in a place to prioritize their new blood and younger series with syndication prospects. SEAL Team remains likely to be renewed for now. The surprise success of the upcoming new drama Instinct could affect SEAL Team's fate going forward.
SCORPION Yes, it's CBS's second lowest-rated series on the air right now. No, it doesn't have a syndication deal at the moment. However, the Eye Network is never to be counted out when it comes to its ability to sell procedurals into syndication. Madam Secretary and NCIS: New Orleans recently solidified deals that will keep them on the air, which gives hope to Scorpion from the same 2014 class. While Person of Interest already had a syndication deal when its final season was announced, I can see Scorpion getting similar treatment with a benched 13-episode fifth season, which would give CBS more time to sell it and add episodes to the package. They could also renew it for a 22-episode fifth season and still bench it, similar to Elementary at present. Realistically, CBS does not bring it back to the fall schedule with its current ratings. However, if they can find midseason slots for shows like Elementary and Code Black with varied episode counts, it seems plausible that Scorpion can continue in some fashion while its afterlife opportunities are looked at. It seems unlikely for CBS to just drop the show completely after four seasons, when there isn't a recent precedent for that. As such, it's still likely to be renewed.