The Major Scheduling Changes and What They'll Need to Break Even in the Ratings

I'm going to take a look at a few of the major shake-ups this season and analyze around what A18-49 demo number the average will need to be for said schedule changes to be considered a success from a ratings-only viewpoint.

Some of you are familiar with SpottedRatings, whose major claim to fame is the introduction of the 'Plus' metric, which gives ratings with respect to the Big 4 league average. For example, a show with a 100 Plus is an average-rated show, while a show with a 130 Plus rates at 130% of the league average. I'll be using that metric in the discussion below. So, let's take a look! Please be sure to leave your insights below!

1)
Network: ABC
Notable Change: Adding a 2nd comedy hour on Tuesday by moving The Middle, The Goldbergs, Fresh Off The Boat, and The Real O'Neals.
Question #1: What will the shows need to average in order for the comedies to remain the same in cumulative Plus?
Question #2: What will the shows need to improve Tuesday 8-10 and Wednesday 8-10?

Last season, the six returning weekday comedies cumulatively averaged a 122.17 Plus. For convenient math let's call the league average this season a 1.3, which would be a reasonable 11% decline. To get a 122.17 Plus this season, the 8 comedies will need to average a 1.59.

However, it is best to add Marvel's Agents of SHIELD into this, as comedy will be taking over the hour it previously occupied. As an hour-long show at just an 80 Plus, this drags the goal down to a 101.63 Plus, or a 1.32. Now that's not as hard to beat, at least with Modern Family in the picture.

So the lesson is, while it may be a challenge for ABC's weekday comedy brand to perform better than it did last season with this move, it shouldn't be as hard on average to improve Tuesday/Wednesday 8-10pm. Of course, some half-hours will be down in the process, in fact there's a small, yet still possible, chance that almost all of last season's comedy slots are down in Plus, the fact that SHIELD and its 80 Plus are averaged into this make it easier to see improvement. So there's really two ways of looking at this if the weekday comedy average is a 1.4 A18-49 L+SD rating. You can say it's a failure because comedy as a whole is down year-to-year as a result of the change, or you can say it's a success because overall the Tuesday and Wednesday 8-10pm slots are overall improved over what was there last season.

2)
Network: CBS
Notable Change: Adding 2 new hours of comedy on Monday by moving 2 Broke Girls and The Odd Couple and transferring Supergirl over to our favorite 10-hour network, as well as moving Scorpion back to 10pm.
The Question: What will the shows have to average to improve Monday nights?

Last season, Supergirl, Scorpion, and NCIS: LA averaged a cumulative 109 Plus. A 109 Plus this season, provided the league average is a realistic 1.3 demo rating, would be a 1.42 demo rating.

Also last season, the cumulative average for 2 Broke Girls, Scorpion, and The Odd Couple was a 110 Plus; something 2 Broke Girls has never done and The Odd Couple's average is deceivingly high due to a fair share of post-Big Bang airings. Meaning that not only will all three of these shows need to stay even in Plus, but Kevin Can Wait and Man with a Plan will also have to perform above average in order for this schedule change to break even in the ratings. The good news? This is presumably a much cheaper option than renewing Supergirl.

3)
Network: NBC
Notable Change: Moving Superstore and Chicago Med to Thursdays while pushing back The Blacklist to 10pm.
The Question: What will the cumulative average need to be in order to improve Thursday nights?

Lots of shows aired on Thursday last season for NBC, but the final line-up of NBC's Thursday last season consisted of reality show Strong at 8pm, The Blacklist at 9 (the only constant for what seemed like a much longer time than it was), and Game of Silence at 10. That adds to up a 65.33 Plus! Or, in what's likely to be this season's standards, around a 0.85 A18-49 rating.

Based on premiere numbers, they shouldn't have all that much trouble clearing that with this season's numbers; though there were some stronger shows in the mix like Heroes: Reborn and Shades of Blue, neither set the ratings world on fire and only one got out of the season alive. So, if NBC sees 1.0s across the board this season from their new Thursday line-up, they'll have an improvement, and Chicago Med will be making backend revenue in no time. Not to mention ad rates for the night will probably be up significantly.

The Future of the Night: ABC Wednesday

Welcome to a segment I call "The Future of the Night". The format is I take a look at a night on the network's schedule, see what could use improvement, and come up with scenarios which could potentially solve it. First, I present a short argument as to why it could work, then play Devil's Advocate with my reasoning, and then present the bottom line. Enjoy, and fee free to leave your opinions by leaving a comment!
____________________________
There is just so much that ABC could potentially do to Tuesday that I had to extend it to another edition, in counterpart to coverage of ABC Wednesday. If you recall, Option 1 presented for ABC Tuesday was to move a comedy from Wednesday to Tuesday to help out Fresh Off The Boat. Which one, if any, should move? Check out the options. This time, in no particular order.

Option 1: Move The Middle to Tuesday, The Goldbergs to 8pm
Why It Will Work: The Middle is about to enter its 8th season, and ABC needs to prepare for a future without it. Fresh Off The Boat could highly benefit from its compatibility.

Why It Won't: Though it airs in a tougher time slot, The Middle still has been the lowest-rated Wednesday comedy as of late. Apply declines for both the league average and for moving to Tuesday,

and will it really help out Fresh Off The Boat? It would also require an overhaul that sees The Goldbergs moving to Wednesday at 8pm to launch an unknown player, which could flop.

Bottom Line: ABC may need to go outside of the box and try a Wednesday comedy on Tuesday. But is The Middle actually it? I tend to think not, especially considering off all comedies to move, moving The Middle would cause the most disruption to the schedule.

Option 2: Move The Goldbergs to Tuesday, New Comedy After The Middle
Why It Will Work: The Goldbergs is a stronger show now than in its 1st season and is perhaps the most compatible of them all with Fresh Off The Boat. It will also be less moves for veteran shows if The Goldbergs moves instead of The Middle.

Why It Won't: The Goldbergs could very well be a time slot hit (I don't count the Wednesday at 8 highly-promoted special as an indicator) and could crumble on Tuesdays. That doesn't help FOTB, leaves a hole on the Wednesday schedule, and makes it less desirable to cable channels interested in picking it up for syndication.

Bottom Line: The Goldbergs may be an integral part in the future of Wednesdays without The Middle or Modern Family. It might be a solid idea for it to stay put for now.

Option 3: Switch Modern Family and Fresh Off The Boat, New Comedy After Modern Family
Why It Will Work: Modern Family is perhaps the least compatible of all the ABC Wednesday comedies + FOTB. FOTB is very compatible with a Goldbergs lead-in (80s/90s family comedies, respectively) and just as much with Blackish (assimilation family comedy). It would be able to grow with a Goldbergs lead-in, yet Goldbergs wouldn't have to change time slots to provide it. Modern Family and a new comedy can lead off a revamped Tuesday night.

Why It Won't: Will ABC really be willing to move their #1 show? It's a risk that may not be worth
taking when it could crumble. It'll make it too expensive to even continue to a ninth season, and no favors would have been given to the show it was supposed to launch.

Bottom Line: Switching Modern Family and Fresh Off The Boat will actually be less schedule overhaul than moving The Middle, while Blackish gets to stay steady at 9:30pm to lead into what is most likely to be a new show at 10pm. The Wednesday average will drop, but the median probably won't, and Tuesday will most likely have a much stronger hour. Finally, ABC would have found 3 of 4 shows needed in a future on Wednesday without its two oldies-but-goodies.

Option 4: Move Blackish to Tuesday, New Comedy After Modern Family
Why It Will Work: Blackish and Fresh Off The Boat, being family assimilation comedies, would fit well together. It would allow for a slightly stronger comedy hour on Tuesday, while allowing Modern Family to launch another show before it's too late.

Why It Won't: Blackish will be the first ABC Studios sitcom to make it to syndication in like forever. The last thing ABC wants is its prized possession to stumble along to syndication and not get as good a deal as it could have. Plus, the new post-Modern Family comedy is not a surefire success and could be a poor lead-in to a potential new show at 10pm. At the end of the year you're left with two aging sitcoms, one or two holes, and The Goldbergs.

Bottom Line: This is the option I have advocated the most throughout the season. After all, ABC repeated Blackish on Tuesday for the entirety of last summer and it did decently.

Option 5: Stay Steady
Why It Will Work: Wednesday is one of ABC's best nights right now, if not the best night. Let's keep The Middle, The Goldbergs, Modern Family, and Blackish together for another season, and while we're at it let's also renew Nashville. For the comedy block, why fix what isn't broken, and for Nashville, if given a 5th season then schedule stability could make its ratings at least predictable.

Why It Won't: Nashville is already fractional, and if they renew it then why would they keep it on what's otherwise most definitely their best day? Also, Tuesday will continue to struggling without some outside help.

Bottom Line: I'm a little hesitant about breaking up Wednesday at all, especially the comedy block. ABC has bigger problems, and it's not clear whether or not ABC should move anything to help solve them.

Which option do you think is the best? Are there any other somewhat-plausible options that I didn't cover? Let me know in the comments below!